Russian military units generally undermanned, says ISW

Russian forces appear to have concentrated a sizable portion of their combat power around Avdiivka in the region of Donetsk.

Over the weekend, Britain’s defence ministry said that Russia has probably committed elements of up to eight brigades to the sector. These elements have likely suffered some of Russia’s highest casualty rates of 2023 so far.

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun said that Russia currently has 40,000 personnel in the Avdiivka direction and is transferring additional manpower to the area.

Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov told the US defence secretary Lloyd Austin that Russian losses in Avdiivka amount to approximately 4,000 soldiers.

US-based think-tank the Institute for the Study of War has routinely assessed that Russian military units are likely generally undermanned and may be battalions, brigades, or regiments in name only with smaller personnel complements than their echelon designations would suggest.

In its intelligence update, the UK defence ministry notes that even Russian nationalist ‘mil bloggers’ have been harshly critical of the military’s tactics in the operation.

The nature of the operation suggests that Russia’s core military-political challenge remains the same as it has throughout most of the war.

Political leaders demand more territory to be seized but the military cannot generate effective operational-level offensive action.

Watch Sasha Vakulina’s report by clicking on the media player above.