Moderna Beats Sales Views, But Light Outlook Could Rattle Shares

Moderna (MRNA) stock could take a hit Thursday after the Covid vaccine maker handily beat third-quarter sales forecasts, but reported bigger-than-expected losses and issued light guidance for this year and next.

X

For the year, Moderna reiterated its guidance for at least $6 billion in sales — below expectations for $6.87 billion, according to FactSet. The company also expects about $4 billion in sales next year, hitting a trough before returning to growth in 2025. Analysts expected $6.05 billion in sales for 2024.

Moderna is now trying to rewrite its story, focusing instead on its efforts to launch a vaccine to prevent respiratory syncytial virus in older adults. That vaccine could join Pfizer’s and GSK‘s (GSK) shots in 2024. If approved, it would be Moderna’s second product to hit the market.

“2024, we believe, will be a trough year,” Moderna Chief Financial Officer Jamey Mock told Investor’s Business Daily. “We think that is the low point in sales and we will grow thereafter. What will help us grow is that we will launch 15 products by 2028 and five products by 2025.”

Still, the news could rattle Moderna stock, which has already fallen precipitously as demand for Covid vaccines tumbles. The vaccines from Pfizer (PFE) with partner BioNTech (BNTX) and Novavax (NVAX) are facing similar challenges.

Moderna Stock: Sales Beat, But Losses Cut Deep

Overall, Moderna reported $1.8 billion in third-quarter sales, trouncing expectations for $1.38 billion. But losses came in at $9.53 per share, swinging from a year-earlier gain of $2.53. Moderna stock analysts had predicted a per-share loss of $1.93.

Mock noted Moderna notched $1.4 billion and $1.7 billion charges in the September quarter related to resizing manufacturing capacity and footprint, and the company’s tax position.

“But it doesn’t affect our filings and we remain quite confident in our pipeline,” he said.

2024 Expectations Feature Covid, RSV Shots

Next year will feature, primarily, sales from Moderna’s Covid vaccine and RSV shot, Mock said.

At the beginning of October, Moderna was five weeks into launching its newest Covid shot. This booster blocks the XBB.1.5 subvariant of omicron. It’s no longer dominant in the U.S., but Mock says Moderna is constantly evaluating new and emerging variants.

So far, Moderna has a 45% share of the market for Covid boosters, up from 36% for all of last year.

Fall vaccination rates are tracking in line with 2022 numbers, he said. Over time, Moderna expects to deliver 100 million to 150 million doses in the U.S. each season.

Meanwhile, Moderna stock analysts are closely watching the RSV vaccine. Mock says it has a benefit over rivals from Pfizer and GSK. Moderna’s vaccine arrives in a prefilled syringe, cutting out one key step for overworked, time-strapped pharmacists, he said.

Late-Stage Pipeline In Testing

Beyond 2024, Moderna has six drugs in late-stage testing.

That includes an updated Covid vaccine, and shots for RSV and influenza. It’s also working on a vaccine to block cytomegalovirus, or CMV. CMV is a latent disease, meaning it lays dormant in the body and reactivates later.

Moderna is also working on cancer treatments in partnership with Merck (MRK). The duo is testing a personalized cancer vaccine in combination with Keytruda for patients who’ve had their melanoma surgically removed. But it will be years before that Phase 3 study has final results. They also plan to soon begin a final-phase study of the regimen in patients with a common form of lung cancer.

“Come 2025, we should be kicking in a flu product, our combination (flu and Covid) vaccine as well,” he said. “So, that will help us grow in 2025 and beyond 2026 and 2027 as well.”

Moderna stock remains below its key moving averages, according to MarketSmith.com.

Follow Allison Gatlin on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, at @IBD_AGatlin.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE:

Crispr Therapeutics Rallies On Bullish Views Of First-Ever Gene-Editing Drug

Verve Stock Soars On $250 Million Eli Lilly Deal

Find Today’s Best Growth Stocks To Watch With IBD 50

Looking For The Next Big Stock Market Winners? Start With These 3 Steps

See IBD Stock Lists & Get Pass/Fail Ratings For All Your Stocks With IBD Digital