Oilers’ Tough Start Not Entirely Consumed by Bad Luck

Puck luck is a real thing. While playing a good game should provide better chances and see the puck end up in the back of the net more often, the puck bounces and deflects in odd ways all the time.

Sometimes, teams can blame the refs for giving one team more opportunities to score. It is also a game of inches when one team hits the post multiple times without a goal. A good example is Evan Bouchard hitting three posts in the second period against the Dallas Stars and not scoring. The Edmonton Oilers have had a tough start to the 2023-24 season, and it wasn’t at all expected. Yes, the defense and goaltending weren’t expected to be amazing, but that has been manageable in the past. The offense hasn’t been on par with what is expected of the Oilers either, as very few pucks that should find the back of the net do.

While there are problems with the team, bad luck has played a part. As we keep expecting the luck to get better for the Oilers, the wait continues, and they keep losing.

Oilers’ Bad Luck

There is a lot to be said about the Oilers’ bad luck. The team ranks first in the NHL in high-danger chances for, fifth in high-danger chances against, 26th in high-danger shooting percentage, and 32nd in high-danger save percentage. While the Oilers’ high-danger chances for and against are astonishing, the team does have some control over it. If the Oilers could cut those numbers in half and rank around 15th in both high-danger shooting percentage and high-danger save percentage, they would see very different results – the chances are there for them, and they are limiting their opponents’, but they have no finish and no timely/key saves being made.

At five-on-five, the Oilers have played very well analytically and should have much better results. The team’s special teams play have had their good moments, but it has to be more than just moments if they want to put together wins and turn the season around.

Edmonton’s shooting percentage is 7.0, while the team’s save percentage is .901. The Oilers are 0.7 (7.7) below league average in shooting percentage and .022 (.923) below average in save percentage. These numbers make sense when we look at the Oilers’ goals percentage, which ranks 24th in the league at 44.74 percent despite ranking second in expected goals at 57.62 percent.

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They are second in the league in Corsi percentage (shot attempts for and against), and while the team has a minus-4 goal differential at five-on-five, their expected goal differential at five-on-five should be 6.11 – 10 goals is a big difference, especially through nine games and three one-goal losses.

More Than Luck That’s Sinking Oilers

On defense, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak have played well overall, ranking in the top 4-7 on the team in controlled zone exits/60 minutes and in the top 4-7 in limiting defensive zone turnovers. Cody Ceci‘s numbers make it seem like he’s struggling more than he is, but there has to be a solution for the Nurse-Ceci pairing (from “Best Edmonton Oilers d-man this year? Unheralded, often maligned but back on track”, Edmonton Journal, Oct. 30, 2023).

The problem is that a high percentage of their turnovers turn into goals. Bouchard has a very high controlled zone exits/60, but he’s also proven to be a high-risk, high-reward player in this regard. The trend is that every puck that is turned over finds its way into the back of the Oilers’ net – and it’s the opposite in the offensive zone.

While the lack of power play and penalty kill success can be looked at as some bad luck, it is more than that. The Oilers had an amazing power play last season, and it isn’t actually bad this season, but it’s not running at an all-time best this season, which takes goals off the board that would’ve been there last season. Both units have shown flashes of very good play, but in general, neither are clicking at where they are expected to be.

Related: 5 Ways the Oilers Can Wisely Use Cap Space From This Season

Execution just hasn’t been there for the Oilers this season, whether it’s capitalizing on a high-danger chance, scoring chance, going to the net and finding a way to get goals, or at the other end, making a timely or big save on a high-danger chance. Returning the same roster this season isn’t the problem. The Oilers finished last season with a 14-0-1 record and a worse lineup. It is early, but things have to start turning around. The Oilers are in control, even though puck luck plays a part.