🌽Corn NEEDS New Demand (GrainStats) for CBOT:ZCZ2023 by GrainStats

Corn Marketing Year Progress (23/24)

▓▓▓░░░░░░░░░░░░ 19.81%

Corn Harvest Progress

▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 81%

Export Inspections

535,191 Metric Tons

5,594 Metric Tons week vs. last week

89,498 Metric Tons this week vs. last week

160,191 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-Year Average This Week

Export Sales

19,290,763 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)

4,823,345 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year

Price Sentiment (Community Polling)

Bullish 26%

Neutral 33%

Bearish 37%

Noteworthy News / Trends

USDA Raised estimated yields of the 2023 crop by 1.9 bushels/acre resulting in the *largest ever crop* to be produced in the United States (15.234 Billion Bushels)

No notable *new and increasing* demand on balance sheet that isn’t expected to be exports

Russia and Ukraine Corn production increased by 2.9 million metric tons (Ukraine carryout increased by 1 million metric tons)

Drought is receding in the US, but several pockets remain (more important for 2024)

Managed money continues to increase their net short in Corn futures contracts in the US & Europe (MATIF Corn)

Panama Canal congestion continues to plague logistics increasing freight costs to navigate through the Panama Canal (most of US Corn is exported through the US Gulf and pending destination, may need to use the Panama Canal to get to market)

Mexico continues to purchase Corn in increasing amounts (Fastest pace in over +5 years)

China has been active in the Sorghum market with the best export sales pace in +3 years (what if they want to purchase US Corn next?)

US Barge freight has gone down 6 weeks in a row from 1,326% of tariff to 467% of tariff (supportive of basis, all else equal)

Fund Net Position

Chicago Corn: -144,432 Contracts (Position as of 10/31)

MATIF Corn: -6,095 Contracts (Record short. Position as of 11/10)

Corn Commentary

Corn continues to find its way chopping through a bear market backed by record US Corn Production. Unfortunately, domestic demand has not been able to keep up with increasing production potential (yield) due to limiting factors: the ethanol blend wall and stagnant feed and residual demand

So where does all the corn need to go? Export Markets

How do you incentivize exports? Being the most competitive offer (Low Prices)

So, if you’re wondering why prices are trending lower, it’s largely because of a supply/demand imbalance and Corn needs to be priced to incentivize *new* demand through the export markets. What better a place to do it than the Corn futures contract which directly ties into the export markets with its river facilities that flow into the US Gulf export market

Until the market finds that point where demand shifts back to the US market OR production problems arise elsewhere in the world, Corn prices may continue in their downtrend.

Technicals

We recommend to start paying attention to what Corn does if it breaks the summer low of 4.61 as the mainstream news outlets will trigger a wave of news about the corn market being the lowest since 2020

Watch the following levels for now

Current Upside Target: 4.76, 4.80

Current Downside Targets: 4.61, 4.42

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