NBA picks, In-Season Tournament best bets: Why Mavericks and Timberwolves should continue rolling Tuesday

Are teams treating In-Season Tournament games any differently than typical regular-season outings? It’s too early to say definitively, but there’s at least a shred of evidence suggesting that the answer is yes. We’re going to exclude the Portland Trail Blazers here for having played multiple overtime games already this season, but here’s a quick look at how the league leaders in minutes stack up in the regular season compared to the tournament:

The regular-season leader in minutes per game is Tyrese Maxey at 37.9. Even if you exclude Blazers and Grizzlies (who played Portland in the only overtime game of the tournament thus far), 13 players played at least 38 minutes in their tournament debuts.
Only 22 players are averaging 35 minutes per game in the regular season. Excluding Grizzlies and Blazers, 41 players did so in their tournament debuts.

These are minuscule samples here, and we’re talking about players who have played in, at most, two tournament games. These numbers will have to be re-evaluated when more data becomes available. For now, though, it seems as if teams are willing to go just a little bit harder to win these games. That’s a nice theory to start with as we make picks for Tuesday’s third night of In-Season Tournament group play games.

We’re making a lot of picks on games that involve potential absences, so take them with a grain (or full shaker) of salt. Trae Young is currently day-to-day with a personal matter. If he does play, though, he’ll be playing against a Pistons frontline that won’t include breakout sophomore center Jalen Duren, who is nursing an ankle injury. Detroit’s perimeter defenders have impressed this season, but asking James Wiseman or Marvin Bagley to survive in pick-and-roll against Young is a laughable proposition. So I’m taking the Hawks with the assumption Young plays. Would I actually bet on this game? Not without confirmation of his status. The pick: Hawks -4.5

The 76ers currently allow the 10th-most fast-break points per game in the NBA. That might sound like a victory for them — except for the fact that they’re actually allowing more of them (15.8 per game) than they did last season (15.5) when they allowed the third-most in the league. Transition defense is still a real weakness for the 76ers, and if you don’t run with the Pacers, they’ll run you off of the floor. Indiana leads the NBA in both fast-break points and offensive rating. They can’t stop a nosebleed, of course, but I’ll take the points here and take my chances. The pick: Pacers +5.5

The Hornets have the NBA’s worst defense right now, but boy, are the Miami Heat a sight for sore eyes. Not only is Miami ranked 24th in offense, but it will be without Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin in this game. Jimmy Butler’s scoring volume is way down this season, and with Herro sitting, the Heat simply lack the ball-handlers needed to punish Charlotte’s weak backcourt. I’ll gladly take the Hornets as a home underdog against a Heat team that has not won a single game by double digits yet this season. The pick: Hornets +3.5

Neither of these teams have their primary ball-handler for this game. Markelle Fultz is out for Orlando, but the Nets are missing both their half-court scorer (Cam Thomas) and their transition maestro (Ben Simmons). Brooklyn can muster a passable offense with one of them. Things get really difficult without both, as the Nets have scored just 207 total points in their last two games. The Magic are a bit more diversified in who generates their offense, so I’ll give them a slight edge here. The pick: Magic +2.5

Okay, this is the trickiest injury game on the board, so bear with me here. Both of San Antonio’s point guards, Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones, are currently listed as questionable. The ideal here would be for Sochan to sit and Jones to play. San Antonio has actually posted a positive net rating with Jones on the floor and Sochan off of it, and the offensive numbers are night and day. Even if both are out, removing Sochan as a primary ball-handler and putting more shooting on the floor opens everything up for the rest of San Antonio’s youngsters. Sochan is a good prospect that already provides plenty of defense and hustle, but he’s suffocating the Spurs offense at the moment, so getting nine points in a game he might miss is tempting. The pick: Spurs +9

I don’t have many rules when gambling, but generally, when a team’s franchise player needs to specify “I’m trying my best to buy in,” right before it plays one of the league’s most dynamic offenses, you should try to short that team. The Pelicans are struggling to actually utilize Zion Williamson on a roster with very limited shooting. Luka Doncic is lighting the world on fire on a roster with all of the shooting. One team is outgunned here. The pick: Mavericks -3.5

Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz

Portland is more or less out of guards at the moment. Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are all out, leaving 20-year-old Shaedon Sharpe in complete command of the offense. Sharpe has had a strong sophomore season, but he’s 20 and has no veterans to lean on at the moment. Portland has lost its past three, and the Jazz should make it four on Tuesday. The pick: Jazz -6.5

Since Game 5 of their 2020 playoff series, the Nuggets are 12-2 against the Clippers. To put that in perspective, the Nuggets have lost twice as many games to the Spurs in that span, and San Antonio hasn’t made the playoffs in that window. The Nuggets have complete ownership over the Clippers right now, and these aren’t exactly the Clippers at their best. Los Angeles has lost its first four games with James Harden, and the drive for five probably comes at 5280. The pick: Nuggets -5.5

Stephen Curry is currently questionable with a knee injury, and while the Warriors have done a better-than-usual job of surviving the minutes he has spent on the bench this season, losing him for a whole game is another story. No Warrior not-named Curry has scored over 20 points in a single game this season. Golden State just can’t score enough without Curry to beat the NBA’s best defense, and even with Curry, the Warriors lost to Minnesota at home on Sunday. The pick: Timberwolves +2.5

LeBron James is questionable to play in this game, and if he sits, this thing will be a mess. The Grizzlies currently rank 29th in offense by scoring 106.4 points per 100 possessions. The Lakers without James are even worse at 97.8 points per 100 possessions. Still, the Lakers haven’t lost at home yet this season, and they just beat the Blazers without James, so I’d trust them more to win a shorthanded game. The pick: Lakers -5