Spy… The retest for AMEX:SPY by ContraryTrader

I think we have 2% more upside to 458 target or trendline retest.

IXIC or Nasdaq composite has lagged QQQ or NDX for most of NOVEMBER; That’s because big tech has outperformed large and mid cap tech.

If you look here on IXIC

Unlike qqq that has closed their gaps, IXIC has still a gap left over from 14,346.
That’s a 1½% move up from Fridays closes. This would most likely put qqq at 391-392.

Once we get closer and closer to closing this gap the magnificent 7 rally will narrow. You will get more weird days like Googl,tsla,amzn up msft,aapl,nvda down; so be selective day to day and don’t swing if you can avoid it.

NYSE or NYA

Chart is self explanatory.

Rising wedge playing out here with a broadening wedge pattern formed.

Price should continue higher until we retest rising wedge in yellow

Dow jones

Deja vu?

Same exact chart as NYSE.

Price will retest rising wedge and test August highs.

Right now price as been consolidating under 35,000. Once dow breaks over and close above 35k , you know the leg higher is upon us.

IWM
Took a Gatorade break after Tuesdays massive breakout.
182 resistance
175 support
I think price is headed back to 191-200.
Iwm was late to the party and will play catch up. I expect a breakout over 182 with holiday sale numbers are released

Another reason I’m expecting a higher high this week is the 3 white soldiers candle pattern showing on the weekly. This candle pattern indicates a high possibility of a higher high for the 4th week. This candle pattern shows up at the end of downtrend or sell-off like what we had from aug-oct. Look at your weekly chart. Now look for 3 green candles after weeks of sell offs, you’ll find that the 4th candle led to a higher high.

Now that we’ve got the BullShyt outta the way .

Here’s what looks bearish.

DXY or dollar

Approaching 103 support.

Price is oversold on The daily

Bearish engulfing candle on the weekly

TNX

10yr

Right shoulder of this H&S has formed a falling wedge at 4.3 gap support

Bearish engulfing candle on the weekly though

Vix

Also falling wedge showing up here while price corrects to 12.90

Also the SPY and QQQ are at Overbought levels almost identical to fall of 2021.

Personal opinion, I’m going with Volume and candles here and both are saying we will go higher still.

Here’s the monthly candle of SPY.

As long as we close this month out below August hangman this has been nothing but a bearmarket rally.

Also As you can see , we are still outside both NYSE and DOW rising wedges so this would just be considered a Retest.

I’ll do some intra day price levels for trading but honestly I haven’t been trading indexes with the exception of IWM, too much Chop. Most likely I won’t trade indexes again next week, I expect low volume for the holiday week, better to stick with individual names.

If you see Tsla,Googl and NFLX green while NVDA and Msft are red that should be your first if you’re trying to short spy or qqq. When you see mix moves on the mega cap the market won’t go much lower and you’ll get trapped in a Theta burn.

Good traders adapt.