Fri. Jan 10th, 2025
TOPDOWN Analysis – Navigating a Complex Market Structure

Overview: Monthly observations reveal a cautious market, with a bearish internal structure emerging after a previous corrective move. Weekly charts, however, present a conflicting scenario, showcasing a lower high and hints of bullish momentum. The confusion intensifies as prices linger around a crucial resistance area. A sell-focused strategy is recommended due to the proximity to significant resistance.

7 Dimension Analysis

Time Frame: Daily

1⃣ Swing Structure: Bearish

Structure Behavior: BoS (Breakout of Structure)

Swing Move: Corrective move completed at a premium area, marked by an IFC candle.

Inducement: Awaiting confirmation at a potential high.

Pull Back: Anticipating a retracement to the inducement level.

Internal Structure: Bears waiting; marked by supply, distribution, and rejection at a crucial level.

Supply/Distribution/Premium Areas: Intense interaction with a strong rejection at the resistance area. Trendline importance emphasized; waiting for a break and a close below.

Traps: Evident, as prices attempt to surpass the area but struggle to sustain.

2⃣ Pattern

CHART PATTERNS

Reversal

Potential double top patterns; not classic but significance lies in key candle patterns and price movements.

Shakeout reversal observed.

CANDLE PATTERNS

Notable Observations:

Bullish candles appearing but failing, marked by a pin bar reversal.

Long wick candles, inverter hammer, and a gravestone doji present.

3⃣ Volume: Significant volumes observed at the end of the corrective move. Low volumes during the rejection at the supply area; unclear picture.

4⃣ Momentum RSI:

RSI in Super Bullish Zone: Signifies heavy momentum.

RSI Range Shift: Successful shift from sideways to bullish, indicating robust momentum.

Divergence: No clear divergence yet; momentum favoring bulls.

5⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands:

Middle Band Support: Price above the middle line.

No Squeeze or Consolidation: Indicates ongoing momentum.

Dual Band Derivation 1: Favorable for bulls.

6⃣ Strength

Rate of Change: NZD stronger than CAD.

Entry Time Frame: H1

Entry TF Structure: Bullish

Current Move: Impulsive

Support/Resistance Base: Trendline

Candles Behavior: Favorable

Triangle Breakout: Awaiting confirmation.

Final Comments: Buy at the breakout, based on momentum and volatility.

Decision: Initially a buy entry based on the current corrective move; if it fails, consider a reversal entry.

Entry: 0.8309

Stop Loss: 0.8266

Take Profit: 0.8427, 2nd Exit if Internal Structure Changes, 3rd Exit on a trendline breakout or FOMO.

Risk to Reward Ratio: 1:2

Expected Duration: 3 days

SUMMARY: The analysis navigates a complex market structure with conflicting signals on the monthly and weekly charts. The suggested approach is cautious, leaning toward a sell strategy due to the proximity to significant resistance. The daily analysis provides detailed insights into patterns, candle formations, and volumes. The buy entry is considered with specific conditions and exit strategies. This is a corrective move or contra trend entry

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