Week 13 AFC East predictions: Patriots and Jets continue to slide

Through 12 weeks, the Miami Dolphins sit alone atop the AFC East and look poised to clinch their first division title since 2008. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills enter their bye fresh off what feels like a season-ending loss, whereas the New York Jets and New England Patriots continue to fall apart.

Here are predictions for the AFC East in Week 13. 

Miami Dolphins (8-3) at Washington Commanders (4-8): After humiliating their divisional rival Jets in the NFL’s inaugural Black Friday game, the Dolphins should continue rolling against a Commanders team that suffered a crushing 45-10 Thanksgiving Day beatdown at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys. Although Washington fired DC Jack Del Rio and DBs coach Brent Vieselmeyer, personnel changes won’t drastically improve its dismal defense enough to contain Miami’s explosive offense.

QB Tua Tagovailoa had a pedestrian outing by his standards last week, throwing for 243 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, though it’s understandable as the Jets boast a top-five pass defense. The fourth-year signal-caller and his pass-catchers should enjoy a more productive game as Washington has given up the most passing touchdowns (28) and second-most passing yards this season (3,330). 

However, considering the Dolphins defense isn’t as strong as Dallas’ unit and saw edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips suffer a season-ending Achilles injury last week, don’t be surprised if Washington’s offense has a bounce-back performance.

PREDICTION: Dolphins, 31-21

Los Angeles Chargers (4-7) at New England Patriots (2-9): If the Patriots hadn’t already hit rock bottom, coming out of the bye week to drop a matchup against an undrafted rookie quarterback and extend their losing streak to four games feels like they’ve arrived. After throwing two first-half interceptions in last week’s 10-7 loss to the New York Giants, QB Mac Jones was benched for the fourth time this season in favor of Bailey Zappe.

While Zappe didn’t play well either, completing 9-of-14 passes for 54 yards and one interception, New England can’t continue to start Jones. Of course, HC Bill Belichick won’t tip his hand about who will be Sunday’s starting quarterback, but his decision shouldn’t change the game’s outcome even against a subpar Chargers defense.

Over the last three games, New England has lost to Sam Howell, Gardner Minshew and Tommy DeVito. It will quickly become apparent that QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers are far more formidable opponents despite their underwhelming Week 12 showing against the Baltimore Ravens. 

PREDICTION: Chargers, 24-10

Atlanta Falcons (5-6) at New York Jets (4-7): QB Tim Boyle may not get another shot as an NFL starter after this season, but he’ll surely be remembered for last week’s disastrous performance and his now-infamous 99-yard “Fail Mary.” New York’s offense, which averages the third-fewest points per game (14.8), was virtually the same as it was under Zach Wilson, and it seems unlikely much will change against Atlanta’s solid defense.

The Jets defense seems to be reaching its breaking point, knowing it has minimal room for error before things spiral out of control, and Atlanta’s offense is an unfavorable matchup for the star-studded unit. New York allows the second-most rushing yards per game (140.3), a concern considering the Falcons average the third-most rushing attempts (32) and fourth-most rushing yards (139.3) in the league. Expect the Falcons to maintain their NFC South lead behind rookie RB Bijan Robinson, who racked up 123 all-purpose yards and scored two touchdowns last week. 

PREDICTION: Falcons, 21-14