COP28: Draft agreement calls for reduction in ‘consumption and production of fossil fuels’

The UN climate talks are set for a dramatic final day, after the COP28 Presidency published a long-awaited draft of its proposals for a final deal in Dubai, including what could prove to be an historic call to reduce fossil fuel consumption and production “in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before or around 2050”.

The latest iteration of the Global Stocktake – widely regarded as the most important document being negotiated at this year’s UN Climate Summit – was published late afternoon local time, finally giving observers the clearest indication yet of the shape of a compromise deal that could be adopted by almost 200 countries.

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Crucially, the draft text axes previous references to the need to “phase out” unabated fossil fuels, following fierce opposition from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and others. But the latest iteration does still directly call for a reduction in fossil fuel consumption and production by around mid-century. If adopted, the text would mark the first time fossil fuels have been explicitly referenced in a UN climate accord and would build significantly on the 2021 commitment to “phase down” unabated coal power.

The proposed text “recognises the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions” and sets out eight broad actions that countries can take to achieve them, covering renewables, energy efficiency, coal power plants, fossil fuel subsidies, low carbon hydrogen and carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies, and non-CO2 sources of emissions, among other efforts.

The text “calls upon” countries to take actions “that could” include “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science”.

Supporting that call, there is also a paragraph calling for “accelerating” efforts to scale up low emissions technologies “so as to enhance efforts towards substitution of unabated fossil fuels in energy systems”.

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The specific technologies it cites include renewables, nuclear, and “abatement and removal technologies, including such as carbon capture utilisation and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production”.

Moreover, the draft includes a reference to “rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation”, and “accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emissions energy systems, utilising zero and low carbon fuels well before or by around mid-century”.

And it pushes for the “phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible”.

As with previous draft texts, the proposed agreement includes calls for a “tripling [of] renewable energy capacity globally and doubling [of] the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030”, although references to specific capacity targets appear to have been removed.

Additionally, a broad call for “accelerating and substantially reducing non-CO2 emission, including, in particular, methane emissions globally by 2030” – which would largely impact oil and gas producers as well as agricultural firms – remains in the updated version of the text.

However, there is no specific call for action to reduce fossil fuels during the current decade, as has been demanded by various ‘high ambition’ countries and environmental groups, in recognition of the need to peak global emissions by 2025 and then reduce them by 43 per cent by 2030 to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature goal within reached.

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Environmental groups also voiced frustration the proposed commitment “phase out” fossil fuels had been completely cut from the Global Stocktake text, and that the word “inefficient” has made it back into the text in relation to the need to curb fossil fuel subsidies. 

The decision to include references to “abatement and removal technologies” alongside the calls for more renewable energy and energy efficiency efforts was also singled out for criticism by environmental groups, who gave their snap verdict on the text to journalists outside the halls of the negotiating rooms in Dubai.

Concerns were also raised that the language merely suggested nations “could” take the menu of eight broad actions outlined, rather than more robust wording that is often used in UN texts such as “should”, which detractors warned may not provide a strong enough impetus for the rapid energy transition needed to put the world on a 1.5C-aligned pathway.

Accusations were quickly levelled at the likes of Saudi Arabia and Iraq for fighting against more ambitious “phase out” language being included in the text on fossil fuels, both of which have frequently been cited as among the biggest opponents of language pushing an end the global economy’s dependency on coal, oil and gas. 

All eyes will now turn to countries that have been seeking ambitious language on fossil fuels to provide a signal as to whether there is a deal to be done based on the text that is now on the table.