UAE Consensus delivers ‘landmark’ deal to transition away from fossil fuels

The final deal on the crucial Global Stocktake text was rapidly gavelled through in a plenary meeting this morning by COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber, who named the agreement “the UAE Consensus”. 

The plenary took place just a few hours after an updated draft text was released by the UAE Presidency, following more than 36 hours of tense closed door talks that sought to broker a compromise agreement. A previous version of the text had been widely criticised by the coalition of nations seeking a more ambitious deal, who argued it failed to provide a sufficiently robust signal that fossil fuel production needs to be phased out. 

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The compromise agreed under the UAE Consensus includes a call for countries to commit to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”.

It is the first time fossil fuel production has been directly referenced in a UN climate accord and represents a victory for the High Ambition Coalition of nations, given an alliance of petrostates had previously opposed any reference to fossil fuels. 

At the same time, however, the call for transitioning away from fossil fuels relates only to “energy systems”, with critics warning the loophole could allow fossil fuel developers to justify new projects.

However, Al Jaber hailed the deal as an historic breakthrough that could keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature goal within reach.

“We leave Dubai with our heads held high, and our work goes on,” he said. “In unity and solidarity, we will walk the new path that the UAE consensus has set for the world.  

“Together, we will follow our north star. We will follow it from here, to [COP29 and COP30 host cities] Baku, to Belem and together we will secure the future of this beautiful planet for the many generations to come.” 

The UAE Consensus will now feed into the national climate goals – or nationally-determined contributions (NDCs), in the UN jargon – that countries must submit in 2025 under the Paris Agreement. 

UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell said it was critical all governments and businesses “turn these pledges into real economy outcomes without delay”. 

“COP28 also needed to signal a hard stop to humanity’s core climate problem: Fossil fuels and their planet burning pollution,” he said. “While we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end.”

Steill underscored the significant achievements of UN climate conferences over the years. “Without them we would be headed for 5C of warming – an open and shut death sentence for our species,” he said.

However, with the world still on track for temperature increases of 3C this century, which would “equate to mass human suffering”, he noted that governments “needed to move the needle further”. 

“The Global Stocktake showed us clearly that progress is not fast enough,” he said. “Undeniably it is gathering pace, band I firmly believe this is because the political and economic logic is increasingly unsurmountable.” 

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Alongside the call to transition away from fossil fuels, the final text calls on countries to triple renewable energy capacity globally, double the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, and accelerate “efforts towards the phase down of unabated coal power”.

It also calls for the development of a range of zero and low emission technologies, including renewables, nuclear, “abatement and removal technologies – such as carbon capture utilisation and storage”, with a qualifier that the contentious solution should be applied “particularly in hard-to abate sectors”.

A highly unpopular “menu approach” included in the previous draft – which set out list of options that countries “could” take to deliver emissions cuts – was been replaced with a stronger “call” on parties to take various actions that can deliver these emissions reductions “in line with 1.5C pathways”.

However, the insertion of a new line which “recognises” that “transitional fuels” can “play a role” in facilitating the energy transition and energy security has alarmed NGO and climate vulnerable nations, who have warned it is a loophole that could be used to justify future fossil fuel expansion.

Dave Jones, global insights lead at think tank Ember said the agreement “marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era”.

“For the first time, the world has recognised the scale of ambition required this decade to build the new clean energy system: a tripling of renewables and doubling of efficiency improvements. Renewables and efficiency must now be at the top of every energy and climate plan,” he said. “Together they are the single largest actions that can deliver rapid fossil fuel cuts this decade. There’s so much to gain from transitioning to a clean, electrified energy system: it’s time for governments to grab the opportunity with both hands.”

The compromise agreement received a warm welcome from many governments, but there were also warnings that the level of ambition contained in the text was still well short of that required to keep temperature increases below 1.5C.

Meanwhile, a number of developing countries slammed the final text, arguing it lacked sufficient new commitments to help poorer nations fund the transition away from fossil fuels and bolster climate resilience efforts. After the agreement was gavelled through the Samoa delegation alleged that the text had been adopted without the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) being in the room.

AOSIS had led calls for the text to include a firm commitment to “phase out” fossil fuels and the group has repeatedly highlighted how climate vulnerable nations are not being provided with sufficient financial support.

“We did not want to interrupt you, but we are a little confused about what just happened,” AOSIS lead negotiator, Samoa’s Anne Rasmussen, said during the closing plenary after the text was adopted. “It seems that you gavelled the decisions, and the small island developing states were not in the room.  We were working hard to coordinate the 39 small island developing states that are disproportionately affected by climate change, and so were delayed in coming here.”

Rasmussen acknowledged the Global Stocktake text “contains many good elements” – such as references to science, clear milestones, and the push for enhanced NDCs through to 2025 – but said that overall “we have come to the conclusion that the course correction that is needed has not yet been secured”.

“We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support,” she said, highlighting the lack of any push for peaking global emissions by 2025, the failure to deliver a clear enough commitment to phase out fossil fuel subsidies, and the “disappointing” focus on only tackling fossil fuels used in energy systems.

“We have made an incremental advancement over business as usual when what we really needed is an exponential step-change in our actions and support,” she said. “We must leave here with a set of decisions that meet the magnitude of the climate crisis, that meet the expectations that the world has of us and that meet what is needed to secure the future of the coming generations.”

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Elsewhere, the Global Stocktake includes a significant section on nature protection, albeit with proposals that campaigners have said are too weak. It “emphasises” the importance of conserving, protecting, and restoring nature and ecosystems towards achieving the Paris Agreement goals, including through halting and reversing forest degradation by 2030 – the first time such a pledge has been included in a UN climate agreement.

The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, the package of ambitious nature goals for 2030 agreed by most countries last December, is referenced in this section, in a step forward for the alignment between governments’ nature and climate goals.

Ruth Davis, senior associate at the University of Oxford’s Smith School of Enterprise, said food and nature had “long been due more space in the COP negotiating texts”, as she also highlighted promises earlier in the Summit from countries to include efforts to tackle food system emissions in their national climate plans.

“For the first time ever, the promise to halt and reverse deforestation has become a formal outcome,” she said. “And 150+ countries pledged to put food in their new climate plans. The forgotten third of global greenhouse gas emissions will be under proper scrutiny, providing there is funding on the table. What we need now is to deliver the money.”

Meanwhile, fractious discussions on carbon markets look like they will be deferred to next year’s COP29 Climate Summit in Baku, after consensus was not reached on the terms of Article 6.2 and Article 6.4, which govern the rules for international carbon trading. The delay will leave carbon markets facing continued uncertainty as the sector works to address a series of allegations over the poor integrity of some carbon offset projects.

The general consensus from veteran observers of UN Climate Summit was that the deal represented a significant breakthrough that should help drive increased investment in the net zero transition. It should also ensure governments that approve new fossil fuel energy projects will face difficult questions as to whether they are compatible with a transition away from the polluting energy source. But observers also warned the text contained a worrying number of loopholes for fossil fuel developers to exploit and failed to deliver the levels of finance needed to enable the decarbonisation of developing economies.