Premier League predictions: Lewis Dunk can score from range at 40/1 when Brighton visit Palace

Our betting guru Jones Knows is in the chair to provide his Premier League insight. He’s got eyes on a Lewis Dunk goal when Brighton play Crystal Palace.

Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

A look at how much Brighton have regressed this season can be seen through their odds for this fixture. When these two rivals met in February, Brighton stood a 13 per cent better win percentage with their starting price that day – around 8/11 in contrast to the 6/5 with Sky Bet available for the away win now. Despite my obsession for Roberto De Zerbi and his football burning strong still, Brighton have won just two of their last 12 Premier League encounters, so they are unbackable in a game that just screams draw.

Lewis Dunk’s prices surrounding his shots from outside the box remain an area of punting interest.

The Brighton skipper has had nine shots from outside the box across all competitions this season – seven of them from direct free kicks. Granted, seven of those nine have been off target but one hit the crossbar against Fulham and one drew a save out of Jordan Pickford in the 1-1 draw with Everton. Dunk to hit the target from outside the box at 16/1 with Sky Bet has a squeak – as does the 40/1 for him to score from outside the box.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Aston Villa vs Sheffield United, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Aston Villa are looking to make it 16 home Premier League wins to go top of the Premier League while Sheffield United are the only team without an away win and have conceded the most goals in the top five European Leagues (43) this season. It tells the story of why Villa are 1/6 with Sky Bet and the away win comes in at 16/1. It should be routine.

The one-sided nature to the market has got me delving elsewhere for an angle in and guess what? It’s the Aston Villa offside trap that has got me interested. Unai Emery’s high line has managed to catch the opposition offside 71 times in their last 12 games across all competitions, averaging out at 5.9 per 90 minutes. Whopping numbers.

The most likely runner in-behind for the Blades is former Villa youngster Cameron Archer, who is playing off the left for Chris Wilder and has a healthy offside record of being flagged three times in his last four starts. It’s an average that mirrors his offside rate when on loan at Middlesbrough last season where he registered a 0.75 per 90-minute offside average over a healthy 20-game sample size. When you factor in the aggressive offside line he’ll be running against and his raw offside numbers, it points to the 6/5 with Sky Bet for one or more Archer offsides and 6/1 for two or more rating as significant chunks of value.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Saturday’s fixtures to follow…