Is Florida, Florida State equipped to succeed moving forward?

Things aren’t so bright these days in the Sunshine State — at least not when it comes to college football. 

It went from bad to worse last Saturday as Florida lost to Texas A&M, 33-20, and trailed by as many as 26 in the second half. 

Florida State probably would still like to trade places with the Gators as the Seminoles doled out $1.3M to Memphis and took a 20-12 loss at home, dropping them to 0-3 on the season.

These are dark days, indeed. As Florida looks at its gauntlet of an SEC schedule and Florida State tries to find answers for its lackluster offense, it can be hard to see a ray of sunshine lighting a path forward for either program. 

Changes are no doubt coming for both, and despite being three games into the season, it’s fair to ask if either program is equipped to succeed moving forward.

The buyout

The obvious, but not necessarily correct change to make would be the head coach. Mike Norvell owns a 31-20 record in four-plus years at FSU. After starting his tenure in 2020, he seemed to turn a corner with the program, going 10-3 in 2022 and 13-1 last season. 

But an 0-3 start has some fans clamoring for a coaching change. It wouldn’t come cheap. Norvell’s buyout is $65M, according to Front Office Sports.

Napier, owner of a 12-16 record at Florida, has a buyout of $26M. That figure is reportedly not an issue to high-ranking boosters who have pledged to fund the buyout, according to ESPN. Napier was booed off the field Saturday. 

Athletic director Scott Stricklin was adamant that Napier wasn’t on the hot seat before the season, but that notion will be tested heavily this season.

The boosters

According to 247 Sports, both schools have large donor bases that should put them in position to sign top recruits and attract the best transfers. In August, Florida ranked fourth in the nation among the most generous donor bases for public universities, while Florida State ranked 10th. 

There’s no reason to believe this will change moving forward as both schools fight for relevancy in the changing collegiate athletics landscape.

The conference

This is an interesting argument as Florida resides in the stable, but stacked SEC. Meanwhile, Florida State plays in an easier ACC, which should mean an easier path to the College Football Playoff, but a cloud of uncertainty hangs over the Seminoles. 

The school filed a lawsuit against the conference in December 2023, alleging the ACC’s grant of rights, which is valid through 2036, is illegal. Leaving the ACC could come with massive exit fees — ones that might challenge the aforementioned donor base. And then the next question is where would FSU go?

Florida seems to have a long road ahead to compete in the SEC, while FSU may be leaving the conference it’s called home since 1991. An 0-3 start to this season doesn’t give off positive feelings the program could compete for championships in the Big Ten or SEC. Neither situation seems ideal at the moment.

And that sums up the argument — neither school seems positioned to pull itself out of its misery anytime soon. Florida State’s lawsuit looms large over the program, while Florida has massive ground to cover to return to glory in the SEC. 

The sun may one day shine again on both historic programs, but for now the dark days continue.