Week 5 AFC predictions: Expect ‘The King’ and this AFC South RB to run wild

For some teams, a bye is coming at the perfect time. (We’re looking at you, injury-plagued Los Angeles Chargers.) 

Meanwhile, other teams — hello, Baltimore Ravens — can’t wait to get back on the field. 

Ahead of Week 5 games, Yardbarker NFL writers offer a prediction for every AFC game.

AFC East

BUFFALO BILLS (3-1) | Edge-rusher Greg Rousseau and DT Ed Oliver dominate Texans O-line | Buffalo’s pass rush was virtually nonexistent during Sunday’s humiliating 35-10 road loss to Baltimore (one sack), but the unit is positioned to turn things around against Houston. The Texans’ offensive line has struggled, ranking 22nd in pass-block win rate (56%). Expect Rousseau and Oliver to enjoy productive outings (one sack each).

MIAMI DOLPHINS (1-3) | Offense continues to look broken | After QB Tyler Huntley failed to spark the offense during a Week 4 loss to Tennessee, the Dolphins became the fourth team in NFL history to not have a lead through their first four games. The Patriots’ defense is vulnerable, but expect Miami’s offensive woes to continue on the road Sunday, with the team once again failing to take a lead and being held under 220 yards. 

NEW YORK JETS (2-2) | Defense throws a wrench in Vikings QB Sam Darnold’s MVP bid | Darnold, the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft by the Jets, is one of the best stories of the season so far, leading Minnesota to a 4-0 record while throwing a league-leading 11 touchdown passes. However, Darnold has turned the ball over in three games, and with New York already in must-win mode, the defense should capitalize on his flaw, picking off two of the former first-rounder’s passes at home. 

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-3) | RB Antonio Gibson sees an uptick in carries | Starting RB Rhamondre Stevenson is the most talented Patriots playmaker, but the 26-year-old has struggled to hold onto the ball, fumbling four times in his past four games. Stevenson won’t lose his starting role in Week 5 on the road, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he only gets a few more touches than Gibson, who has averaged an efficient 5.3 yards per carry this season. — Colum Dell

AFC West

DENVER BRONCOS (2-2) | Rookie quarterback Bo Nix throws for 200-plus yards | Nix threw for a season-low 60 yards in an ugly 10-9 win in Week 4 over the New York Jets (2-2). However, he will rebound in Sunday’s home game against the Raiders, who rank 17th in the league in passing yards allowed (206.8) and 24th in passer rating allowed (96.6).

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (4-0) | Rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy has 100-plus receiving yards |
Earlier this week, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid confirmed WR Rashee Rice (knee) will miss Monday’s home game vs. the New Orleans Saints (2-2). With Rice out of the lineup, Worthy — who leads the Chiefs in yards per reception (17.1) — will receive more targets and shred New Orleans, which ranks 25th in the league in passing yards allowed (233.8).

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-2) | Offense fails to score 13 points |
Per NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo, Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams told the team Tuesday he wants to be traded. He also told FanDuel’s Kay Adams he’s unsure whether he’ll play Sunday after a hamstring injury sidelined him in a Week 4 win over the Cleveland Browns (1-3). The Adams storyline will distract the Raiders in a road game against Denver, which has allowed 13 points or less for three straight games. 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (2-2) | No game, bye week — Clark Dalton

AFC North

BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-2) | Derrick Henry scores TD in fifth straight game | “The King” has increased his rushing total every week this season, and while it will be tough to top his Week 4 199-yard rushing total this week at Cincinnati, he should extend his TD streak to five games. Cincinnati’s rush defense has struggled, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game (145.5) in the NFL. This week should be no different as Baltimore aims to get its third straight win with a run-first mindset.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (1-3) | Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins combine for 200 yards | In Week 4, the Bengals got their first win because they targeted wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins early and often (combined nine catches for 145 yards and a touchdown). The wide receiver duo has a good chance to have an even better game this week at home against the Ravens’ shaky secondary, which has allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game (257.5) in the league.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-3) | Amari Cooper has first 100-yard game of season | Cooper has been limited by defenses for the most part (one game over 35 yards receiving). However, that should change this week against the Commanders defense, which is ranked in the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed per game (220.5). Cooper’s underwhelming play is a product of struggling QB Deshaun Watson, but Watson should rely on his No. 1 wide receiver Sunday at Washington.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (3-1) | Justin Fields leads team in rushing in back-to-back weeks | RB Najee Harris struggled mightily in Week 4 with just 19 yards on 13 carries (1.5 yards per carry), but he is in line to receive the bulk of the workload once again with the status of running backs Jaylen Warren (knee) and Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle) undecided. However, Fields led the Steelers in rushing (55 yards) in Week 4 against the Colts and will do it again at home on “Sunday Night Football” against the Cowboys, who are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (145.8) in the NFL. — Adam Becker

AFC South

HOUSTON TEXANS (3-1) | RB Joe Mixon returns from injury, records another 150-plus yard outing | Mixon had 159 yards and a touchdown in the Texans’ opener but missed Monday night’s win over the Jaguars after suffering an ankle injury in Week 2. The former Pro Bowler practiced last week and is on pace to return Sunday at home against a Buffalo Bills defense that ranks 32nd in yard-per-carry (5.7) and 30th against the run (626 yards). He’s unlikely to duplicate Derrick Henry’s Week 4 performance (199 yards, two TDs), but in this favorable matchup, Mixon will top the 150-yard mark for the second time. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (2-2) | WR Michael Pittman Jr. posts first TD of 2024 | With the status of QB Anthony Richardson (hip pointer) and RB Jonathan Taylor (high ankle sprain) undecided, Pittman may be the Colts’ go-to option on offense at Jacksonville. The fifth-year wideout leads the team in receptions (17) but has yet to score a TD, which should change Sunday. The Jaguars defense is ripe for the picking.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (0-4) | QB Trevor Lawrence throws three TD passes | Leading a Jaguars offense ranked 30th in the NFL, Lawrence has struggled, but he’ll have a breakout in a must-win matchup at home against the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed more yards (1,599) than any other team and the fifth-most touchdown passes (six) through four weeks. Meanwhile, the former No. 1 pick is coming off a solid performance (169 yards, two TD passes, zero interceptions) against the league’s fifth-best defense in a 24-20 loss against the Texans. He’ll build off of that performance by posting his first three-TD game since Week 13 of 2023.

TENNESSEE TITANS (1-3) | No game, bye week — Mike Santa Barbara