Russia and Iran may fuel violent protests after US elections

Russia and Iran may try to encourage violent protests online in the US after the country’s presidential election in November, senior intelligence officials warned Tuesday.

According to a declassified national intelligence memo, the aim would be to increase division in US society and cast doubt on the election results, potentially complicating the smooth transfer of power.

The memo’s authors warned that Russia and Iran could organise protest events themselves or encourage citizens to participate in protests, usually through online channels such as social media.

The warning comes after Russian military intelligence tried to recruit a US citizen to organise protests in the US in January. The American was thought to be “probably unwitting” and unaware that he was in contact with Russian agents.

It’s not the first time the US has accused the Iranian government of encouraging division on its soil. In July, officials accused Tehran of covertly supporting protests against American support for Israel in Gaza.

At the time, US law enforcement claimed that groups linked to Tehran were posing as online activists on social media platforms, encouraging protesters and providing money to cover the cost of travel to protests in Washington.

Officials warned that the attack on the US Capitol by Trump in 2021 has made the risk of political violence greater this year, as Iran and Russia had a heightened awareness of how sowing seeds of doubt about election results can trigger chaos.

Iran and Russia have generally capitalised on widening polarisation in the US by using online disinformation and propaganda, the officials said.

Besides hoping to shape the outcome of the election, Russia and Iran are said to want to undermine civic unity in the US by spreading false and misleading claims online about key issues such as immigration, the economy and the US administration’s response to recent hurricanes that swept through Florida.

Voters could also be at risk at polling stations, where groups hoping to meddle in the election could use violence to sway voters on whether or not to cast a ballot.

A similar incident occurred in 2020, when Iranian hackers allegedly posed as members of the far-right Proud Boys organisation to send threatening emails to Democratic members.

Iran has generally sought to hurt Trump’s campaign through disinformation. Trump’s previous term in office saw him back out of the hard-won nuclear deal with Iran and impose harsh new sanctions on the country.

The former president also ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the elite Quds Force that takes a lead role in Iran’s Middle Eastern proxy wars, and the Iranian government remains furious at his killing in Baghdad to this day.

As for Russia, an official with the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence told reporters on Tuesday that the Kremlin will likely try to foment protests in the US regardless of who wins the White House.

The official said they expect Russia’s response will be more aggressive, however, if Harris defeats Trump.

On Tuesday, a spokesperson for Iran’s UN mission pointed to past statements denying any intention of interfering in American politics. A message left with Russia’s embassy by the Associated Press was not immediately returned on Tuesday.