Moldovans are voting in a pivotal presidential runoff

On Sunday, Moldovan voters will choose their next president. During the first round on October 20th, Sandu led with 42% of the vote but failed to win an outright majority, while Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly former prosecutor general, received 26%.

Since no candidate received more than 50% of the votes, they face a runoff election viewed as a choice between geopolitical opposites.

On the same day, the country held a national referendum, and Moldovans voted by a razor-thin majority of 50.35% in favor of securing a path toward EU membership. However, the result was overshadowed by allegations of a Moscow-backed vote-buying scheme.

After the two October votes, Moldovan authorities reported that a vote-buying scheme was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch living in Russia. Shor was convicted in absentia in 2023 for fraud and money laundering. Prosecutors allege that approximately €35,8 million was funneled to over 130,000 voters through a Russian bank that is under international sanctions between September and October. Shor has denied any involvement in wrongdoings.

“These people who go to Moscow, the so-called government-in-exile of Ilan Shor, who come with very large sums of money, are left to roam free,” said Ticu, a candidate in the presidential race who was considered a long shot.

Ticu stated it was clear that the voting process would be neither fair nor democratic, and he was the only candidate from the first round to support Sandu in the runoff. Voters from the breakaway region of Transnistria, which has a heavy Russian military presence, are allowed to vote in Moldova. Ticu warned that if Russian troops move to the port city of Odesa, it could lead to Moldova’s occupation.

In Gagauzia, where EU support was low, a doctor was arrested for allegedly coercing elderly residents to vote for a specific candidate, with police uncovering financial evidence linked to a sanctioned Russian bank. Anti-corruption efforts have led to significant cash seizures and investigations into electoral bribery involving multiple state employees.

Both elections revealed serious flaws in Moldova’s judiciary and raised doubts among pro-Moscow factions about the electoral legitimacy. Igor Dodon, a former president aligned with Russia, rejected the referendum results and criticised Sandu’s leadership. Sandu acknowledged that fraud and foreign interference marred the elections, warning that without judicial reforms, Moldova’s future could be jeopardised.

As one of Europe’s poorest nations facing high inflation, experts note that many Moldovans might succumb to electoral corruption for small sums.

Moldova watchers warn that Moscow may focus its efforts on the upcoming 2025 parliamentary elections. With decreasing support for the ruling pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity, there is concern that it may struggle to maintain its majority in the 101-seat legislatures on this situation.