Champions League expert picks, predictions, best bets: Real Madrid top Milan; Inter-Arsenal will lack goals

UEFA Champions League action resumes this week with a batch of high-profile matches as we reach the midway point of the league phase.

Only Aston Villa and Liverpool have perfect records through three games, though the Reds’ clash with Bayer Leverkusen is one of several Matchday 4 matchups to keep an eye on. Tuesday’s action will also feature Real Madrid in the first game following a lopsided El Clasico defeat, and the most notable game in Ruben Amorim’s Sporting Lisbon farewell tour – a faceoff against future foe Manchester City.

Arsenal’s trip to Inter, meanwhile, headlines Wednesday’s action. Both sides have impeccable defensive records so far in Champions League play, not conceding a single goal so far, and could use the game to make a statement about their title-winning aspirations.

Ahead of the action, here’s how the CBS Sports team thinks Matchday 4 will play out.

Don’t miss any of the Champions League. As always, you can catch all of our coverage across Paramount+, CBS Sports Network and CBS Sports Golazo Network all season long.

Here are our expert picks for this matchday:

Tuesday

Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen

Player to watch: Florian Wirtz — Who knows, this might not be the last Anfield sees of Wirtz? Certainly Liverpool will have plenty of rival suitors when the time comes for one of the Bundesliga’s brightest stars to leave Bayer Leverkusen, but there is a quasi-number 10 spot in Arne Slot’s XI that would fit Wirtz perfectly. On Tuesday expect him to show just how well. — James Benge

Man of the match: Mo Salah — As always, the Liverpool winger is probably the most dangerous player on the pitch and he’s likely to score against the club coached by the former Liverpool legend. Salah, who is still looking to sign a new deal with the Reds, as his current one will expire at the end of the current season, has already scored nine goals so far in 15 games played in all competitions. — Francesco Porzio 

Prediction: Prediction: Liverpool 2, Leverkusen 1 — The Reds’ impressive form under Arne Slot meets Die Werkself’s strong away form for a game which will be all about Xabi Alonso’s return to Anfield. The Spanish tactician, up against the Dutchman who landed the job that many expected Alonso to take will be fascinating. Leverkusen can overtake Liverpool in the League Phase standings with a win but a draw or a narrow home win is most likely. — Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Florian Wirtz to have one shot on target (-120) — If you had to pick a winner here, it’s likely Liverpool, but the best part about finding value in the market is you don’t have to always pick a winner. Liverpool defender Ibrahima Konate may be available for the match, but he won’t be 100% after needing to be withdrawn from their victory over Brighton. Leverkusen will push to make things happen at Anfield and since everything that they do goes through Wirtz, he’ll have license to shoot and getting a single shot on target at close to even money is the way to go. — Chuck Booth

Real Madrid vs. Liverpool

Player to watch: Kylian Mbappe — We all expected that there’d be an adaptation period for Mbappe. A new club in a more competitive league with a world class player already occupying his natural spot: this was hardly going to be a day one smash. That is, however, what Madrid expects. Already the reports are emerging of Carlo Ancelotti identifying Mbappe as a problem in his side. Sooner or later, he will find the solution. Doing so sooner, however, is going to be crucial in quelling the noise at the Santiago Bernabeu. –– James Benge

Man of the match: Vinicius Jr. — The Brazilian star is set to play against the Rossoneri for the first time in his career after a week where he surprisingly lost the Ballon d’Or. Italian coach Carlo Ancelotti spoke about it in the pre-match press conference. “He’s fine. He realizes what is happening. Luckily we didn’t play on Saturday and Vinicius trained well, like everyone else.” — Francesco Porzio

Prediction: Real 2, Milan 0 — Los Blancos have had a few extra days to prepare for this one given that their game over the weekend was postponed, so expect to see the Spanish giants looking fresher. Carlo Ancelotti needs a response from his players after some poor results and showings which is ideal given the Rossoneri’s issues so far this season, which have them struggling in Serie A and the Champions League. Expect a fairly straightforward Real win at Santiago Bernabeu. — Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Over four corners in the first half (-145) — Finding value when betting Real Madrid can be hard. They’re expected to win this game and for good reason, but corners are a place that can be attacked. Both teams will want to start this match quickly and a when flurries of attacks are coming in from all directions and a keeper like Mike Maignan is trying to protect his net, it can lead to quite a few corner kicks out of the gate.

Wednesday

Inter vs. Arsenal

Player to watch: Declan Rice — It is probably nothing more than a Euros hangover, but the draw with Liverpool aside, this has not been a vintage start to the season for Rice. With Martin Odegaard sidelined and Thomas Partey shuffled out of midfield, Mikel Arteta needs his record signing at his all action best in the San Siro. — James Benge

Man of the match: Bukayo Saka — The English winger is the player that the Nerazzurri have to fear the most. After a solid start of the season, where he scored three goals and provided seven assists in nine Premier League games, Saka is ready to shine at San Siro against the 2023 Champions League finalists. — Francesco Porzio 

Prediction: Inter 1, Arsenal 1 — The Gunners have just two wins from their last five so things are getting trickier for Mikel Arteta of late with Liverpool pulling clear in the Premier League title race. Both sides have seven points from nine in the League Phase so far while the Nerazzurri are also within a point of Napoli in Serie A. Given Inter’s ability to run the likes of Manchester City close in the Champions League, this one feels like it will be a fairly tight encounter with a score draw sounding about right. — Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Best bet: Draw (+210) — So far, when top sides have met in Champions League, it hasn’t been exactly thrilling, and this could be a continuation of that. Neither side particularly needs a victory, but they both have strong defenses and don’t mind it if the match gets a little physical. I wouldn’t put a full unit on such a specific outcome but I’m backing the points being shared. — Chuck Booth

PSG vs. Atletico Madrid

Player to watch: Antoine Griezmann — The pressure is building for Atletico. In such scenarios there tends to be one man who delivers (well, except for the goalkeeper). Even as Diego Simeone has been building an attack for life after Griezmann the Frenchman continues to deliver. Four goals and five assists have come at a rate of one every 122 minutes. When Atleti were in a hole against Leipzig it was Griezmann who dug them out. He could well do the same this week. — James Benge

Man of the match: Ousmane Dembele — The former FC Barcelona winger had a strong start to the 2024-25 season where he has already scored five goals and provided four assists in Ligue 1, while he’s yet to score his first Champions League goal of the season and the clash against his former Spanish rivals is the perfect chance to make it happen. — Francesco Porzio 

Prediction: PSG 2, Atleti 1 — This is a big game for both sides with Luis Enrique and Diego Simeone both needing a win. The French giants have looked more convincing so far given their chances wasted to bury opponents but their Spanish opponents are under pressure having lost twice already. This one is likely to be fairly tense and tight but PSG should just about have enough to emerge victorious for a second league phase win. — Jonathan Johnson

Best bet: Both teams to score (-134) —  it’s a clash of some of the biggest underperformers in Champions League so far with PSG and Atletico Madrid meeting. While the underlying numbers back PSG turning things around, that doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to defend against Atleti’s potent attack. It’s a good match for keeping it simple with both netting at least a goal. — Chuck Booth