Path to victory: Trump sees rural gains and Harris hopes for ‘Blue Wall’

As many predicted, this is shaping up to be a long election night – one that might even stretch on for days.

Polls are closed across many of the East Coast battleground states, and votes are being tabulated at a rapid clip. An early picture of this historic presidential race is beginning to come into view.

While the final outcome is still in doubt, it appears increasingly likely that America is in for another nail-biter of an election.

Hopes – on both sides – that there could have been some kind of decisive last-minute movement of voter preferences one way or the other appear to be unfounded.

In Georgia and North Carolina – states that Donald Trump all but has to win – the former president is doing even better in the traditional rural areas than he did in 2020. Kamala Harris is matching Joe Biden’s totals in the urban and suburban counties, but so far she has not made a marked improvement.

While these vote margins could shift, narrow Trump victories in Georgia and North Carolina would mean all eyes once again turn to the Democratic “Blue Wall” states along the Great Lakes. The scenario where Harris delivers a knock-out punch on Election Night would fail to materialise.

At that point, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania become her best – perhaps only – path to the White House. And in Pennsylvania, the final results might not be known for days.

One thing is clear at this point, however. Turnout in this election is once again approaching the highest level in modern American history. It may even eclipse the 65.9% mark set in 2020.

Both Trump and Harris have repeatedly said that the stakes in this election are high. The American public seems to have heeded that call.

This analysis will be updated as more results come in.