2024 set to be hottest year on record and first above 1.5C

Scientists are now “virtually certain” 2024 will be the hottest year on record.

So far this year, global average temperatures have been 0.71C above the 1991 to 2020 average. This is the highest on record for this period and 0.16C warmer than the first 10 months of 2023, according to the latest data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

C3S says that average temperatures would have to drop to almost zero in the remaining months of 2024 for it not to break the record.

“After 10 months of 2024, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record,” says Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S.

With 2023 1.48C above pre-industrial levels, she says it is also almost guaranteed that 2024 will be the first year of temperatures more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. It is likely that it will be more than 1.55C above.

Attempting to limit global warming to 1.5C is one of the main goals of the Paris Agreement. Though a year-long breach doesn’t mean this long-term target has been missed, it does mean we are getting perilously close.

“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming climate change conference, COP29,” Burgess adds.

October continues the trend of above-average temperatures

It comes after an incredibly hot summer during which temperature records were broken across Europe.

In July, Earth experienced its two hottest days on record and the Mediterranean was gripped by a heatwave scientists say would have been “virtually impossible” without human-caused climate change.

High average temperatures didn’t leave as summer ended with September the second warmest globally and in Europe.

Last month continued that trend with October 2024 the second-warmest on record globally after October 2023. Average temperatures were 15.25C – 0.8C above the average from 1991 to 2020.

It was also 1.65C above pre-industrial levels making it the 15th month out of the last 16 where global average temperatures have exceeded 1.5C.

In Europe, October saw average temperatures of 10.83C – 1.23C above the 1991 to 2020 average for this month. That makes it the fifth warmest October on record with temperatures above average across almost all of the continent.