Picking every Champions League league phase game: Real Madrid miss top eight, PSG qualify, Liverpool top

We’re heading into the second half of the Champions League league phase, the real business end of a competition it feels Europe is only just getting a grip on. Until the first iteration of the eighth game, where one to 36 battle for qualification (ideally with the bye afforded to the top eight), has reached its conclusion it will be hard to put a finger on what has worked, what hasn’t and whether this new system affords fewer dead rubbers in the final weeks.

For now, however, it’s time to return to the big picture predictions we made before a ball had been kicked in September. On that occasion we concluded the league phase would end with Real Madrid right in the mix for top spot, the less-heralded French clubs nowhere to be seen and Leipzig firmly in the mix for the top eight. Not everything was so wide of the mark — Celtic you’re doing me proud — but where do we think the competition is heading? Let’s find out

Current Standings

Key: Positions 1-8 qualify for Round of 16 while positions 9-24 qualify for Knockout Phase Play-Offs and positions 25-36 are eliminated.

Pos
Team
GP
W
D
L
GF
GA
GD
PTS

1
Liverpool
4
4
0
0
10
1
+9
12

2
Sporting CP
4
3
1
0
9
2
+7
10

3
Monaco
4
3
1
0
10
4
+6
10

4
Brest
4
3
1
0
9
3
+6
10

5
Inter
4
3
1
0
6
0
+6
10

6
Barcelona
4
3
0
1
15
5
+10
9

7
Borussia Dortmund
4
3
0
1
13
6
+7
9

8
Aston Villa
4
3
0
1
6
1
+5
9

9
Atalanta
4
2
2
0
5
0
+5
8

10
Manchester City
4
2
1
1
10
4
+6
7

11
Juventus
4
2
1
1
7
5
+2
7

12
Arsenal
4
2
1
1
3
1
+2
7

13
Bayer Leverkusen
4
2
1
1
6
5
+1
7

14
Lille
4
2
1
1
5
4
+1
7

15
Celtic
4
2
1
1
9
9
0
7

16
Dinamo Zagreb
4
2
1
1
10
12
-2
7

17
Bayern Munich
4
2
0
2
11
7
+4
6

18
Real Madrid
4
2
0
2
9
7
+2
6

19
Benfica
4
2
0
2
7
5
+2
6

20
AC Milan
4
2
0
2
7
6
+1
6

21
Feyenoord
4
2
0
2
7
10
-3
6

22
Club Brugge
4
2
0
2
3
6
-3
6

23
Atletico Madrid
4
2
0
2
5
9
-4
6

24
PSV
4
1
2
1
7
5
+2
5

25
PSG
4
1
1
2
3
5
-2
4

26
Sparta Praha
4
1
1
2
5
8
-3
4

27
Stuttgart
4
1
1
2
3
6
-3
4

28
Shakhtar Donetsk
4
1
1
2
2
5
-3
4

29
Girona
4
1
0
3
4
8
-4
3

30
RB Salzburg
4
1
0
3
3
10
-7
3

31
Bologna
4
0
1
3
0
5
-5
1

32
RB Leipzig
4
0
0
4
4
9
-5
0

33
SK Sturm Graz
4
0
0
4
1
6
-5
0

34
Young Boys
4
0
0
4
1
11
-10
0

35
Red Star Belgrade
4
0
0
4
4
16
-12
0

36
Slovan Bratislava
4
0
0
4
2
15
-13
0

Match week five

Sparta Prague 1, Atletico Madrid 2
Slovan Bratislava 0, Milan 2
Manchester City 2, Feyenoord 1
Bayern Munich 2, Paris Saint-Germain 0
Inter 1, Leipzig 0
Barcelona 3, Brest 0
Leverkusen 4, Salzburg 0
Sporting 1, Arsenal 2
Young Boys 0, Atalanta 2
Crvena Zvezda 1, Stuttgart 0
Sturm Graz 0, Girona 0
Liverpool 2, Real Madrid 0
PSV Eindhoven 3, Shakhtar Donetsk 1
Dinamo Zagreb 0, Borussia Dortmund 2
Celtic 2, Club Brugge 1
Monaco 1, Benfica 1
Aston Villa 0, Juventus 0
Bologna 0, Lille 1

Having skipped ahead to the conclusion of this novel approach to continental football, I can tell you which are the two biggest games of this coming match week. One is very much as you expected, a game of quite major significance for Real Madrid at Anfield. Lose and the holders can probably wave goodbye to their chances of a top eight finish. Six points from five games, a maximum tally of 15 available to them, almost certainly would not be enough.

Does a bye through the first knockout round matter to Madrid? We can be pretty certain Carlo Ancelotti will say not really, that any extra games are a good tune up for the business end of the competition. At the moment Kylian Mbappe et al look like they need exactly that but you wouldn’t want to be gambling at the variance end of the Champions League if you can help it.

Bayern Munich’s clash with Paris Saint-Germain is the other red letter matchup, but it might not be the most significant. Frankly the Bavarians ought to be strong favorites for a robust win but don’t expect that to kill off PSG’s bid for top 24. Those prospects may be dictated at the Marakana, where Stuttgart face Crvena Zvezda. The form book would say that this should be an easy win for the Germans against a side without a point and with the competition’s worst expected goal difference. 

Be careful what you assume about the artists formerly known as Red Star, however. Their fixture list so far has been one of the most brutal in the competition, Inter and Monaco away, Barcelona and Benfica at home. What lies ahead of them is rather more favorable, culminating in a trip on the final day to a Young Boys. Nine points from their next four and they’re right in the mix for a play off spot. Meanwhile defeats for Stuttgart and PSG would set up what might be a shoot out for qualification at the MHPArena on the final day.

Match week six

Dinamo Zagreb 1, Celtic 0
Girona 0, Liverpool 2
Leipzig 3, Aston Villa 1
Leverkusen 2, Inter 1
Atalanta 1, Real Madrid 2
Club Brugge 1, Sporting 1
Shakhtar Donetsk 0, Bayern Munich 2
Salzburg 0, Paris Saint-Germain 3
Brest 1, PSV Eindhoven 0
Atletico Madrid 2, Slovan Bratislava 0
Lille 3, Sturm Graz 1
Borussia Dortmund 0, Barcelona 1
Juventus 0, Manchester City 2
Benfica 3, Bologna 1
Arsenal 2, Monaco 0
Milan 3, Crvena zvezda 2
Feyenoord 2, Sparta Prague 0
Stuttgart 1, Young Boys 1

There are few things more absorbing in sport than the thrilling, last gasp sprint to the finish line that has you believing you might be about to witness something special only for it to fall apart at the end. Yes, it’s more fun than when it goes right. And *spoiler alert* it’s probably not going to go right for Leipzig. It all really went wrong at Celtic Park. There’s a longer term question for UEFA about fixture list balancing when at home to Aston Villa is one of the easier games on the docket (does the seeding need to take a narrower view of a side’s quality than the last five years?). There were teams out there who could fritter away a few points. Leipzig were not one of them.

Further up the table, the challengers for the top eight look to be set. Fewer than 12 points with two games to go is probably going to be insufficient particularly as the likes of Manchester City, Bayer Leverkusen and Arsenal are accruing theirs at a rapid rate.

Top 12 at Christmas

1

Liverpool

13

18

2

Barcelona

14

15

3

Bayer Leverkusen

6

13

4

Inter

6

13

5

Arsenal

5

13

6

Brest

4

13

7

Lille

4

13

8

Manchester City

3

13

9

Bayern Munich

8

12

10

Borussia Dortmund

8

12

11
Milan
4
12

12
Atletico Madrid
1
12

Match week seven

Atalanta 2, Sturm Graz 0
Monaco 1, Aston Villa 1
Slovan Bratislava 0, Stuttgart 2
Club Brugge 1, Juventus 3
Atletico Madrid 1, Bayer Leverkusen 1
Benfica 2, Barcelona 2
Liverpool 1, Lille 0
Bologna 2, Borussia Dortmund 1
Crvena Zvezda 1, PSV Eindhoven 0
Leipzig 3, Sporting 1
Shakhtar Donetsk 2, Brest 1
Real Madrid 5, Salzburg 0
Paris Saint-Germain 1, Manchester City 3
Sparta Prague 1, Inter 1
Arsenal 2, Dinamo 0
Celtic 1, Young Boys 0
Feyenoord 2, Bayern Munich 4
Milan 0, Girona 0

There’s a lot that is going to be hard to predict about the Champions League’s first post-Christmas league games since the two group stage format was abandoned. Who’s to say that Manchester City won’t address the problems in their squad and blitz PSG? Might Real Madrid also strengthen further and could impressive sides such as Brest find themselves picked apart midseason?

What does seem likely is that this will be the week that a few of the top eight nail down their berths. Arsenal, Liverpool, Bayern Munich and Liverpool have fairly favorable games ahead of them while it is easy to see Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid concluding that a draw will do each of them nicely. That means that come the final week the greatest drama is probably going to be in the lower reaches of the table, where everyone down to 31st has a very real chance of busting their way into the knockout rounds.

The battle for the playoffs

21

Dinamo Zagreb

-3

10

22

Feyenoord

-4

9

23

PSV Eindhoven

-3

8

24

Stuttgart

-2

7

25

Paris Saint-Germain

-3

7

26

Club Brugge

-6

7

27

Shakhtar Donetsk

-6

7

28

Leipzig

-2

6

29

Crvena Zvezda

-11

6

30
Girona
-6
5

31
Sparta Prague
-6
5

Going into the final week the truly dead rubbers are few and far between. Sporting against Bologna is probably the only one. What will really be a matter of intrigue is how hard those teams on the cusp of the top eight are willing to play so that they don’t have to play two more games down the road.

Match week eight

Sporting 0, Bologna 0
PSV Eindhoven 2, Liverpool 1
Young Boys 1, Crvena Zvezda 3
Stuttgart 1, Paris Saint-Germain 2
Sturm Graz 0, Leipzig 1
Manchester City 3, Club Brugge 0
Bayern Munich 3, Slovan Bratislava 1
Inter 1, Monaco 0
Borussia Dortmund 2, Shakhtar Donetsk 0
Barcelona 3, Atalanta 1
Bayer Leverkusen 2, Sparata Prague 0
Juventus 1, Benfica 0
Dinamo Zagreb 0, Milan 0
Salzburg 0, Atletico Madrid 2
Lille 2, Feyenoord 1
Aston Villa 2, Celtic 0
Girona 1, Arsenal 1
Brest 0, Real Madrid 2

You can safely predict it’ll be the B teams who take the field for Liverpool, Arsenal and Barcelona, among others, but with 18 games to choose from there’ll be more entertainment elsewhere. Expect the battle for 24th (weird phrase, I know) to go to the wire between Stuttgart and PSG with Leipzig and Crvena Zvezda watching on from afar, praying for the draw that eliminates both sides and allows them to sneak through with nine points.

If psychodrama is more your thing, events in Salzburg might be the most intriguing. Atletico Madrid would just need to win against a side struggling to make much of a positive impact on the Austrian Bundesliga, let alone the Champions League. With their crosstown rivals breathing down their neck they couldn’t fritter away a top eight spot, could they?

1

Liverpool

13

21

2

Barcelona

16

19

3

Manchester City

8

19

4

Bayern Munich

12

18

5

Bayer Leverkusen

8

17

6

Inter

8

17

7

Arsenal

7

17

8

Atletico Madrid

3

16

9

Borussia Dortmund

9

15

10

Real Madrid

8

15

11

Atalanta

6

14

12

Aston Villa

5

14

13

Milan

4

14

14

Brest

2

13

15

Lille

2

13

16

Celtic

-1

13

17

Sporting

5

12

18

Benfica

4

12

19

Monaco

2

12

20

Juventus

2

12

21

Feyenoord

-3

12

22

Dinamo Zagreb

-3

11

23

PSV Eindhoven

-2

11

24

Paris Saint-Germain

-2

10

25

Leipzig

-1

9

26

Crvena Zvezda

-9

9

27

Stuttgart

-3

7

28

Shakhtar Donetsk

-8

7

29

Club Brugge

-9

7

30

Girona

-6

6

31

Bologna

-7

5

32

Sparta Prague

-8

5

33

Salzburg

-21

3

33

Sturm Graz

-10

1

35

Young Boys

-15

1

36

Slovan Bratislava

-21

0

Anyone for Mbappe back at the Parc des Princes in the playoffs?