Russian offensive in Ukraine’s Donetsk region gains momentum

Russian forces are making tactical advances in the western Donetsk region in Eastern Ukraine. They are now advancing to the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka — a settlement just east of the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia border area. 

With the current pace of Moscow’s advances, the Washington-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has identified several potential courses of action for the Russian military command.

Russian troops may move west from Kurakhove, along the H15 road, where they have already seized some positions. This would give Moscow forces a stronger position from which to envelop a chain of settlements along the highway northwest and northeast of Vuhledar.

They may also continue advancing west along the road towards Andriivka while attacking the pocket northeast of Vuhledar, trying to push Ukrainian troops into withdrawal westward to avoid encirclement.

Such a manoeuvre could enable Russian troops to seize tactical positions in the area and level the frontline from Sontsivka to Kostyantynopolske, pushing them about 23km east of the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk region border at its closest point. 

Seizing all the territory of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions within their administrative borders has been the Kremlin’s top priority since Russia’s initial invasion more than a decade ago.

The ISW notes that Russia would need to capture more than 8,000 square kilometres of territory to achieve the Kremlin’s goal of seizing the entirety of Donetsk only.

But at the same time, Reuters news agency reported that the current pace of Russian advances in Ukraine is the fastest since the early days of the full-scale invasion in early 2022. 

Is the city of Zaporizhzhia in danger?

Ukrainian military officials continue to warn of potential Russian ground operations against Zaporizhzhia City, some 30 kilometres away from the current frontline.

The timeline and the possible scale of this potential offensive remain unclear also due to Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s region of Kursk.  

A Ukrainian brigade commander stated that the incursion into Kursk halted initial Russian plans for an assault on the city of Zaporizhzhia and that the Russian military command redeployed nearly half of the 20,000-30,000 Russian troops initially amassed for the Zaporizhzhia assault to Kursk region.

The battalion commander noted that continued Russian efforts in Kursk may delay an offensive on Zaporizhzhia and that Russian forces may also conduct the attack with a smaller force grouping than originally intended.

The Economist, citing Ukrainian intelligence sources, reported on Sunday that Russian forces are preparing for a future offensive operation with up to 130,000 personnel against the city.

Intensified air attacks

Meanwhile, Russia launched 188 drones against most regions of Ukraine overnight, the Ukrainian Air Force said Tuesday, describing it as a record number of drones deployed in a single attack. The air raid alert in the Kyiv region alone lasted more than seven hours throughout the night. 

Most of the drones were intercepted, according to authorities, but apartment buildings and critical infrastructure, such as the national power grid, were damaged. No casualties were immediately reported in the 17 targeted regions. 

Ukraine is facing a difficult winter — its third amid the full-scale invasion and Moscow’s efforts to destroy the country’s energy infrastructure and wear down Ukrainians’ will to resist. 

Additional sources • AP