Oscars 2025 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner

There is no shortage of competitors for the Best Actor category hoping to be nominated for the Oscars 2025 and try to win. The Academy Award for the best lead male actor is one of the biggest awards each year, which is no different in 2025. Following in the footsteps of Cillian Murphy’s breakthrough win for Oppenheimer in 2024, there is an entirely new crop of performers who want to win this year. They’ll be among the nominees in all Oscars 2025 categories, as voters decide which five actors deserve the nominations before narrowing it down to one winner.

As the ones in front of the camera, actor awards can often get more attention than the 2025 Oscars Best Director nominations. There is usually plenty of overlap between the actors who are nominated for Best Actor and the selection of films contending for Best Picture. Since those ten movies are deemed the best of the best, it’s understandable for the best performances of the year to be included in them. Whether the 2025 Oscars Best Picture nominated movies completely cover the acting category or not, Screen Rant‘s predictions for Best Actor are below.

Others Contending For The Oscars 2025 Best Actor

The list of five actors we’re predicting to get Oscar nominations for Best Actor when the nominees are announced on January 17, 2025 is subject to change, as several other actors are still in contention. It’s been confirmed that Jesse Plemons is angling for a Best Actor nomination for Kinds of Kindness. Sebastian Stan has two different movies that could get him in the race, and he’s closer than ever after snagging two Golden Globe nominations for The Apprentice and A Different Man. John David Washington is also a potential nominee to watch for The Piano Lesson.

Beyond Sebastian Stan, the actor who is surging the most is Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain). 13 years after being nominated in Best Actor for The Social Network, Eisenberg is back in contention with his dramedy co-starring Kieran Culkin. It would not be surprising if he ultimately unseats Daniel Craig as one of the five nominees now that he’s also a Golden Globes nominee. If Craig does fall out of the race, Eisenberg or Stan are best positioned to be the reason why.

Furthermore, there are some previous Best Actor nominees who could still gain support on voters’ ballots. Andrew Garfield’s emotional performance in We Live In Time could draw support as a two-time former nominee in the category. Paul Mescal wasn’t expected to be an Oscar nominee for Aftersun, so he could surprise with Gladiator II too. It does seem we can rule out a Joaquin Phoenix repeat for Joker: Folie à Deux, while Tom Hanks (Here) is also unlikely to sneak in. The difficulty for most of these hopeful contenders is how rock solid the predicted list of five nominees is already.

5 Daniel Craig – Queer

He’s Never Been Nominated For An Oscar

Daniel Craig is a major contender for Best Actor at the Oscars 2025 thanks to Queer. Luca Guadagnino’s movie sees the former James Bond actor star as an ex-military man in Texas who begins to fall for a younger man. It is Daniel Craig’s performance that has been the standout among reviews for Queer, as most praise him for giving the best performance of his career. That narrative is strong enough to propel the actor into the Best Actor race.

Even though Daniel Craig has never been nominated for an Oscar, he has plenty of support in Hollywood to get the nomination in 2025. Queer is a clear break away from Bond or Knives Out, two franchises that largely dominated the last decade of his career. The dramatic turn is worth celebrating. A24’s involvement in the film’s Oscar campaign should help too, as the studio previously helped Brendan Fraser win his first Oscar for The Whale two years ago.

History is also on Daniel Craig’s side a bit when it comes to getting a Best Actor nomination as the lead of a Luca Guadagnino movie. The director previously directed Timothée Chalamet to his first Oscar nomination in Call Me By Your Name, so the same could happen for Craig. His Golden Globe nomination helps his cause, but these next few weeks are most important for him as Queer expands wide in theaters. Craig needs the boost at this point to hold off rising contenders.

4 Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Domingo Got His First Oscar Nomination Last Year

Colman Domingo is back in awards contention yet again, and this could be the time that he wins Best Actor. He had a breakthrough role as far as the Oscars are concerned in 2023 with Rustin. Domingo’s powerful performance in the biopic drew strong support from voters as he received his first Best Actor Oscar nomination. While he ultimately did not win the category, it suggested that it would only take another great performance for him to be back in the race.

Thanks to Sing Sing‘s debut at the Toronto International Film Festival in September 2023, it was known that Domingo had already done so before he officially lost at the 2024 Oscars. A24 held off on releasing Sing Sing until 2024 so it would be a contender for the Oscars 2025, likely partially due to the support Domingo already had for a nomination for Rustin. Now, he’s well positioned to earn Oscar nominations for Best Actor in back-to-back years. The support for him to emerge victorious this year should be even bigger.

Even though major precursors for the 2025 Oscars that could impact the Best Actor race have yet to happen, Colman Domingo has already earned some recognition for his Sing Sing performance. His current wins include the Spotlight Award at SCAD Savannah Film Festival and the Impact Award at Middleburg Film Festival. He also notably won the Gotham Awards’ Best Actor, giving him his first major win of the season, before landing a Golden Globe nomination. The combination of all four adds to the praise for his performance to help bolster his Best Actor chances.

3 Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

He’s Already A Best Actor Oscar Winner

Adrien Brody is likely to be back in the Best Actor race for the 2025 Oscars. His role in The Brutalist has put him strongly in contention to win the Academy Award once again. Adrien Brody won the Best Actor Oscar in 2003 for The Pianist, and he made history by becoming the youngest actor to win an Oscar. That would have seemingly positioned him as a frequent contender for more nominations and wins, but that has not happened. The Brutalist would be Brody’s first Oscar nomination since winning the award over two decades earlier.

The Brutalist is predicted to be a strong Oscar contender in many categories, but it’s uncertain which it will actually win. That could give extra favor to Adrien Brody if he becomes the aspect of the film that voters rally around to show support. He is certainly a common point of praise among early reviews, but whether the actors’ branch ultimately recognizes his work in the same way is to be determined. Even if there’s not enough support for him to win at the end of the day, The Brutalist‘s emergence is a big boost for Adrien Brody’s chances.

Adrien Brody’s Oscars chances have improved greatly in recent weeks thanks to landing a handful of nominations. In addition to the love he’s received from major critics groups, he’s one of the six Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama nominees for the Golden Globes. He also was nominated for the Gotham Awards, losing to Domingo. With Craig’s positioning in the race fading a bit, A24 could double down now on Brody and The Brutalist as its strongest Best Actor contender. If done right, Brody winning his second Oscar is feasible.

2 Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

He’s A Two-Time Oscar Nominee

The 2025 Oscars Best Actor category could finally be the time for Ralph Fiennes to become an Oscar winner. Fiennes’ performance is one of the highlights of the film for just about everyone who sees it. His work should resonate with Academy voters and put him squarely in the mix for a Best Actor Oscar nomination. After all, he was even our predicted winner in the category previously. Although that is no longer the case, to no fault of his own, it would be a mistake to completely discount his chances.

The narrative behind Ralph Fiennes getting nominated and possibly winning the Best Actor Oscar is strong. He’s been nominated twice before by the Academy. His first Oscar nomination came in 1994 for Schindler’s List in Best Supporting Actor. He followed that up with a Best Actor nomination three years later for The English Patient. Despite the overall excellence of his career, he’s gone nearly thirty years since his last Oscar nomination and a win has still eluded him. The 2025 Oscars can change that.

Conclave is an expected Oscars contender in various categories, which helps Ralph Fiennes’ case, but the movie either needs to gain more momentum or shift its focus to just supporting him for a win to happen. He’s been a favorite among early critic circles doing end-of-the-year lists, and yet his most notable accomplishment is his Golden Globes nomination. If he manages to win there and gain support from other major precursors, Fiennes could wind up back on top.

1 Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Chalamet Already Has One Best Actor Nomination

Timothée Chalamet looks poised to earn his second Best Actor Oscar nomination thanks to A Complete Unknown. He plays iconic musician Bob Dylan in the movie, directed by James Mangold. All signs point to this being a bit of a transformational performance by the young Hollywood star, as he puts his spin on Dylan’s talking and singing voice. The Academy has a soft spot for biopics, especially when they involve a celebrity as famous as Bob Dylan, which is another point in Chalamet’s favor.

A Complete Unknown would be Chalamet’s first Oscar nomination since 2018, when he entered the race thanks to Call Me By Your Name. He’s only become a bigger star in the years since, with him balancing roles with more obvious Oscar potential like A Complete Unknown with his first franchise, Dune. Although his performance as Paul Atreides is great in Dune: Part Two, it’s unlikely he’d be recognized for it by the Academy. That could make his Bob Dylan movie a chance for the Oscars to effectively acknowledge the overall work he did in 2024 between the two films.

Although there is still time before A Complete Unknown hits theaters, Chalamet’s position in the Oscars race is surging. It could have been easy to mess up playing Bob Dylan and let down audiences familiar with the musician, but Chalamet appears to have fully delivered. Following his Golden Globe nomination and critics group acclaim, Chalamet is now our predicted Oscar winner for Best Actor. If he does, he’ll break Adrien Brody’s record to be the youngest Best Actor Oscar winner in history. The 2025 Oscars would then mark the fourth straight year Best Actor has gone to a first-time winner.