Farage’s Reform UK party just one point behind Labour, poll shows

Nigel Farage’s right-wing Reform UK party is polling just one percentage point behind the governing Labour Party, according to an opinion survey that will cause headaches for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

A YouGov poll released on Tuesday showed that Labour would win 26% of the vote if an election was held now, while Reform UK would receive 25% and the Conservatives 22%.

Lagging behind that trio, the Liberal Democrats would pick up 14% and the Greens 8% of the ballots, the survey found.

As British politics has long been dominated by Labour and the Conservatives, the rise of Reform UK is a significant development.

While Reform UK only has five MPs in the 650-seat parliament, the party won 14% of the vote in the 4 July election last year in what was widely considered a shock result.

Farage, an anti-immigration campaigner and former MEP who has been in the public spotlight for years, was one of those elected in July, as the representative for Clacton, Essex. It was the eighth time he had attempted to become an MP.

Shortly after the YouGov poll was released on Monday, the Reform UK leader wrote on X: “The Tory [Conservative] brand is completely broken. We are the real opposition to this disastrous government.”

Since winning a large majority in July’s election, Keir Starmer’s Labour party, which ousted the Conservatives from power, has struggled with its messaging and popularity.

His government got off to a bad start, hit by a donations scandal and then by a controversial decision to cut winter fuel payment to millions of pensioners.

More woes were added when Labour increased the national insurance contributions employers have to pay, a move businesses say will stifle economic growth, which is the government’s key target.

The latest YouGov poll shows that public confidence in Labour has diminished significantly, with other parties eating into the healthy lead that Labour enjoyed in the elections six months ago.

Only 54% of Labour supporters at the last election would back Starmer in another vote, according to YouGov.

In total, the party has lost 7% of its July voters to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Greens, 5% to Reform UK and 4% to the Tories. A further 17% said they are unsure where their current allegiance lies.

The YouGov survey, which polled 2,279 British voters on Sunday and Monday, showed that Labour is still the most popular party with younger voters. Some 36% of this age group said they would support it.

However, Reform UK’s appeal to this demographic has jumped dramatically, with 19% of this cohort backing Farage’s party, compared to just 5% for the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, the Tories are still the most popular party for people aged 65 and over. But Reform UK appears to be gaining on them, with YouGov saying they only trail the Conservatives by 5% in this age group.

The results of the YouGov survey are a blow for the new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who wants to prevent right-wing voters from defecting to Reform UK.

The poll comes after Farage recently angered his former ally, the billionaire Elon Musk.

Before the incident earlier this month, there were suggestions that Musk could donate millions of pounds to Reform UK to improve its chances at the next election.

However, Farage fell foul of Musk by saying that his party would not welcome Tommy Robinson, a far-right activist who is currently serving a prison sentence. The billionaire has expressed support for Robinson, saying he should be released from jail.

In response to Farage’s comments about Robinson, Musk said that the Reform UK leader “does not have what it takes”.