The NBA is unpredictable—one night, your favorite team is blowing out their rivals, and the next, a squad no one believed in comes out of nowhere to steal the game. Upsets are what make basketball thrilling, but they’re also a sweet goldmine for bettors who know how to see them coming.
If you’ve been scratching your head trying to understand how underdogs sometimes dunk on the favorites, you’re in the right place. This guide will help you uncover the key factors that signal an NBA upset is brewing—and if you bet responsibly, it might even make you a few bucks.
What Makes an NBA Upset?
Before we get to the fun stuff (spotting upsets), we need to make sure we’re all wearing the same jersey here. An NBA upset happens when a team that’s heavily expected to lose (aka the underdog) beats a team that’s predicted to win (the favorite). It’s that simple.
Upsets can be game-changers for sports bettors. Why? Because the odds usually favor the favorite, meaning the payout for betting on the NBA underdog is much higher. But spotting them requires more than just a lucky guess.
Factors That Can Lead to an NBA Upset
1. Star Players Sitting Out (or “Load Management”)
Load management—the two most frustrating words in basketball, especially if you’ve spent hundreds of bucks on game tickets. For fans, a star sitting out is a bummer; for bettors, it can be a massive opportunity.
When superstars like LeBron, KD, or Giannis take a game off to rest, their team’s edge vanishes faster than a speed dribble. Teams often struggle to adjust without their star’s presence, giving the underdog a real shot.
How to spot this: Keep an eye on injury reports and last-minute lineup changes (even 30 minutes before tip-off). Follow NBA news sources and beat reporters on Twitter for updates.
2. Back-to-Back Games
Ever tried running a 5K two days in a row? Now imagine doing that at an NBA pace with players dodging, defending, and dunking all night long. Back-to-back games are brutal, especially if one involves travel.
The tired legs of the favorite team give the underdog a chance to catch them off guard. This is especially true if the underdog is fresh and has had a few days of rest. Remember, fatigue leads to turnovers, sloppy defense, and missed shots.
How to spot this: Check the schedule. Back-to-back road games? Advantage, underdog!
3. Trap Games
A “trap game” in NBA slang is when a favorite overlooks a lesser team because they’re too busy thinking about their next “big” matchup. Maybe they’ve got the #1 seed coming up and assume they can cruise past tonight’s game without giving it 100%. Big mistake.
Trap games often result in upsets because the underdog takes the court with something to prove, while the favorite coasts—and pays the price.
How to spot this: Look at what’s coming up on the favorite’s schedule. Got a big rivalry game or a top-tier match-up right after this one? Beware the trap.
4. Hot Shooting Streaks and Role Players on Fire
Some nights, basket rims just feel wider for certain players. When role players or bench warmers suddenly catch fire, the underdog gets a boost nobody could’ve expected.
Think of Jeremy Lin’s “Linsanity” or a player like Duncan Robinson drilling three after three. This hot streak energy can overwhelm a favorite that isn’t playing tight defense.
How to spot this: Look at recent shooting stats and streaks in the last 5-10 games. Has an underdog player been lighting up the scoreboard lately?
5. Defensive Weaknesses in the Favorite
Even powerhouse teams have weaknesses. Maybe their perimeter defense is like a sieve, or they’re awful at defending pick-and-rolls. If the underdog matches up well against these flaws, you just might have a recipe for an upset.
How to spot this: Analyze the favorite’s defensive numbers—especially against fast-paced teams or 3-point shooters if that’s the underdog’s strength.
6. Crowd Energy (or Lack Thereof)
Crowds can make or break a game, especially when it comes to small-market or lower-ranked teams. Home-court advantage is no joke—it can throw the favorite off their game while fueling the underdog with momentum.
On the flip side, when the favorite is on the road and the crowd is wild, even the best teams can crumble.
How to spot this: Check if the underdog is playing at home, and consider how the arena’s energy could shift the atmosphere.
Red Flags You Can’t Ignore
While spotting an upset is thrilling, not every underdog story pans out. Look out for these warning signs before placing your bets:
Too Many Injuries on the Underdog Team: If half the team is on crutches, they’ll need more than a miracle to pull off the upset.
The Favorite with Something to Prove: If the favorite just got embarrassed in their last game, they might come out with a vengeance.
Underdog Scheduling Woes: Back-to-backs and long travel can crush an underdog’s chances too.
NBA Upsets in History That Shocked Us All
Need proof that anything can happen? Here are three unforgettable NBA upsets:
Warriors over Mavericks (2007): The “We Believe” Warriors shocked the 1-seed Mavericks 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs.
Pistons over Lakers (2004): The underdog Pistons dismantled the star-studded Lakers to win the NBA Finals.
Cavs over Warriors (2016 Game 7): The Cavs overcame a 73-9 Warriors team with LeBron’s iconic chase-down block and Kyrie’s clutch 3-pointer.
Moments like these remind us why we sit glued to our screens.
Related: Top NBA Rookies to Watch: Who Will Be the Next Big Thing?
Pro Tips for Betting on Upsets
If you’re looking to bet on upsets responsibly, here are a few quick tips:
Do the Research: Understand the match-up, team stats, and current form.
Bet Small, Win Big: Upsets can happen, but they’re not guaranteed. Don’t bet more than you’re willing to lose.
Play the Long Game: Track trends and stay patient. Upsets aren’t nightly occurrences, but when they come, they’re worth it.
Compare Odds: Different bookies may offer different odds for the underdog, so be sure to shop around and find the best value for your bet. Platforms like FanDuel usually offer competitive odds and frequently update their lines, making them a great place to find good value on underdog bets.
Remember, betting is all about fun. Enjoy the thrill, but keep things responsible!
Your Path to Spotting Upsets
Predicting an NBA upset is as much art as science, but with the right tools and a bit of game knowledge, you’ll start to feel like an insider. Pay attention to the details—injuries, schedules, player form—and connect the dots.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is solely the author’s opinion and not investment advice – it is provided for educational purposes only. By using this, you agree that the information does not constitute any investment or financial instructions. Do conduct your own research and reach out to financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
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