NFL X factors: AFC divisional playoffs

Coming off a 186-yard, two-score performance against the Steelers in last week’s wild-card game, Henry gets another shot at the Bills this week, this time at Highmark Stadium where game day temperatures should be in the single-digits with possible snow.

Just imagine how players like safety Damar Hamlin and linebacker Dorian Williams, Buffalo’s leading tackler, must feel about bringing down a 6-foot-2, 247-pound running back like Henry in those conditions.

Per pro-football-reference.com, Henry led the NFL with 42 broken tackles and 909 yards after contact in the regular season and should be fine against a Bills defense that held Denver running backs to 35 yards last weekend.

Buffalo Bills | James Cook | RB

The Bills won’t keep Henry out of the end zone if they can’t keep him off the field. Cook should stay busy after rushing for a season-high 123 yards on 23 carries with a score in a 31-7 victory over the Broncos in the team’s wild-card matchup.

With Cook’s help, Buffalo held the ball for nearly 42 minutes, running 72 plays while Denver ran only 42. Including the playoffs, Cook now has six touchdowns in his last five games and should do better than the 39 yards he had against Baltimore in Week 4.

Houston Texans | Danielle Hunter | LB

The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes isn’t likely to throw four interceptions like the Chargers’ Justin Herbert did against Houston last week, but the Texans have a chance if they can get to Kansas City’s quarterback.

Mahomes took a career-high 36 sacks this season, including one in the Chiefs’ 27-19 victory over the Texans in Week 16. Hunter didn’t get to Mahomes that day but led Houston with 12 sacks and 17 tackles for a loss in the regular season.

Only Joe Burrow (652) and Aaron Rodgers (584) had more passing attempts than Mahomes (581) this year and the Chiefs will surely look to air it out against the Texans. Houston blitzed with Hunter 46 times last season but only eight times in 2024. Expect him to be much more active on Saturday.

Kansas City Chiefs | Isiah Pacheco | RB

Mahomes is amazing but is going to need help from the team’s pedestrian running game at some point. After rushing for 84 yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry over the past two seasons, Pacheco has averaged 32.7 yards per game and 3.1 yards per carry since returning from a fractured fibula in Week 14.

The 25-year-old running back sat out the team’s last regular season game with a rib injury but expects to play on Saturday. As a member of the 2022 NFL Draft class, Pacheco became eligible for a contract extension last week. A big game against Houston’s fifth-ranked defense will certainly help the team and his bottom line.