NFL is set to reevaluate its playoff format

A 14-3 Vikings team was forced into a road trip to play a 10-7 Rams squad, albeit in Arizona due to the Los Angeles-area wildfires, but this was not the only game in which a home team carried a worse record. The Buccaneers and Texans each hosted opponents (the Commanders and Chargers) who carried worse records than the visitors held. Houston prevailed against the AFC’s L.A. franchise while Washington defeated Tampa Bay.

Highlighted by instances in which seven-win Seahawks (2010), Panthers (2014) and Commanders (2020) teams earned home games by winning their respective divisions as seven-win teams, the NFL awarding home games to division winners has come under frequent scrutiny. The 2008 Chargers and 2011 Broncos each went 8-8 and beat 12-4 teams (the Colts and Steelers) at home in Round 1.

Division winners did not always earn opening-round home tilts, as the four- and five-team brackets — from 1975-89, at least, as the NFL did not turn to record-based home-field advantage until the ’75 season — required the division winner with the worst record to begin postseason play on the road. Since 1990, however, every division winner has begun its playoffs at home.

The league will take another look at its seeding format this coming offseason, CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones notes. Rather than award home games to the four division winners, the NFL would look at giving them to the four teams with the highest win percentages overall. This would resemble how the NBA seeds its playoffs. Though, it is worth noting proposals along these lines have not made it too far in the past.

A playoff hierarchy that determines seeding based on record would have required the Eagles to play their starters in Week 18, as both the Vikings and Lions entered Week 18 with superior conference records in the event of a tiebreaker scenario. The Packers and Commanders also would have factored into pursuits of a first-round home game in Week 18. 

The NFL, as Jones notes, also saw its ratings decline by 2.2% from the 2023 season. A format in which wild-card teams and division winners could have more to play for in Week 18 would help the overall product, albeit while devaluing the importance of winning a division.

Whereas the NBA has seen its format deprive the league’s divisions of much meaning, the NFL has seen them retain importance for ages. Changing that figures to be a tough battle, as John Mara had once said a 2008 measure to reseed in this matter “went down in flames,” with Jones adding the effort did not receive meaningful discussion. 

While the ratings component could conceivably push this issue to a discussion this time around, it will be difficult to envision the country’s most popular sports league making a big-picture change like this at present.