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There is one person aside from Donald Trump who could definitely put an end to this economic chaos. His name is Mike Johnson. And the House Speaker would really, really like it if you could keep his name out your mouth.
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As the President continues to goad a global meltdown unseen in decades, Speaker Johnson is trying to keep the MAGA meltdown away from his fellow House Republicans. Trump has triggered an utter circus that may haunt GOP lawmakers for a generation and retirees into their graves. Even Trump allies like Sens. Rand Paul and Chuck Grassley—for different reasons, sure—are sounding an alarm about the repercussions of these add-ons.
Rep. Don Bacon, an Omaha Republican, has legislation teed up in the House to make a move against Trump’s unilateral emergency tariffs. His bill lacks sufficient public support from GOP colleagues for now, but the private frustrations among lawmakers are starting to pile up. For now, most are not willing to defy the President. A similar bill in the Senate has bipartisan backing, and would almost certainly draw more Republicans if they could be sure they weren’t walking the plank only to see Johnson toss it in a desk drawer to die.
If Johnson were to give the green light to a measure reasserting Congress’ authority over tariffs, things would change really quickly on Capitol Hill. There would likely be majorities in both chambers for such legislation—perhaps even large enough to override the veto Trump promised on Monday to issue if such a bill reached his desk. But such a bold move could very well lead to Johnson getting a pink slip from his caucus, as his Speakership barely happened, and only then with Trump’s intervention.
For his part, Trump seems utterly undeterred by this political quagmire.
“We’re going to get fair deals and good deals with everybody. And if we don’t, we’re going to have nothing to do with them. They’re not going to be allowed to participate in the United States,” he said Monday.
It is, to be clear, an entirely avoidable cul-de-sac of chaos that Trump is steering the economy toward. And, if House members were willing to vote their conscience, this would end in short order. Also to be clear: they are not.
Access to international markets is the lifeblood for a lot of red districts’ economies—think tractors, soy beans, medical devices—and making those products less appealing as exports is a first punch in a one-two combo that now includes higher costs in the aisles for imports that used to be cheaper goods from China, Singapore, and India.
The hit hasn’t come at the check-out line just yet, but investors are seeing the trouble just around the corner and reacting with contempt. At the White House on Monday, Trump dismissed those playing the markets as stupid cowards who did not share his optimism that a golden age of American power is just off the horizon, if only they have the patience. “Tariffs will make this country very rich,” Trump said in a free-wheeling session in the Oval Office as the Israeli Prime Minister seemed to play the role of a potted plant.
As the White House continued to insist everything is fine and even floated a spin-up of tariffs on China to reach 130% penalties, Wall Street continued to slide into an open rebellion against a White House that not that long ago seemed like a natural ally. Even a European Union proposal to zero-out tariffs on some U.S. goods proved insufficient for Trump, who said “the E.U. has been very tough over the years.”
The fast-moving snowball stands to drive up prices on almost every single item in U.S. families’ cupboards. Some Trump officials continue to suggest this is merely the opening of a negotiation, while the President and others say the new tariff regime is irrevocable and righteous retaliation.
All the while, the House seems to be sitting in a passive crouch, watching the tariff crisis gaining speed and acting as if it has no offramp at its disposal.
The politics of this are entirely predictable and precarious. The House map has already proven frail. The Senate map is only slightly fungible. GOP holds in state races are fragile. If you’re not catching the trend, there are a lot of F-based words on the offing when it comes to Republican dominance. And it isn’t getting easier as markets flail.
Monday’s developments were greeted with grimace around town. Goldman Sachs escalated the odds of a recession to 45% in a note to investors. K Street players have been warning lawmakers of problems in their districts on goods ranging from seed oil to auto components, airplanes to wheat thrashers. If all politics is local, then all tariffs are pitfalls.
For now, Johnson is maintaining his support of whatever Trump wants. But if the Speaker were to blink, there are very good odds that his team would shelve their red MAGA hats briefly enough to rollback Trump’s tariffs. Yet any swerve away from Trump’s blessed route risks ending with House Republicans pursuing a vote-of-no-confidence against Johnson, who has so far been impressively steady at the helm of a caucus that is unwieldy at best.
That’s why, among some Republicans on the Hill—especially in the upper ranks of senior aides—there is a professed indifference to these rumblings.
“Everything is garbage. That much was true last week. It is true this week. It will be true next week. Everyone needs to calm down,” a top hand in House Republicans’ Leadership texted me early Monday. “You can panic all you want. But President Trump is still the leader of the party. Speaker Johnson has the gavel. Leader [John] Thune runs the Senate. And the Supreme Court is our friend. As the kids say: STFU.”
The bifurcated Rome-is-Burning/ Steady-as-she-Goes posture is what is driving the conservative movement in Congress at the moment. No one loves that Trump has a monopoly on the party, but it’s been a marriage of necessity since 2015. But that arrangement is being tested, as the phone lines on Capitol Hill burn up with constituents worried about their retirement accounts and the future of local businesses.
Which brings us back to Johnson, an accidental Speaker whose majority is on the cusp and his loyalty is at best marginal. His rank-and-file members on Monday were feeling the burn of a Trump stunt that has cost the economy trillions in less than a week. The fall-off on markets since Trump’s Inauguration Day has been as steep as any in recent memory. And no one is credibly dismissing it as a blip any longer.
Put simply: the tariff crisis is Trump’s doing, but it’s Johnson and his Republican hostage-takers who keep it alive.
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