AMERICA and its European allies are working on military plans to offer Ukraine a Nato-style defence against future Russian aggression.
Through a combined force of European soldiers and US air power, they hope to put an end to a dark chapter in Europe’s history.
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ReutersNATO troops take part in NATO’s ‘Steadfast Dart 2025’ exercise at Smardan training range, near Galati, Romania[/caption]
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Ukraine is one of the powerful armies in Europe among the allies – but it hasn’t been able to expel the Russians in a WW1-style meatgrinder.
Kyiv wants to join Nato and become a member of the world’s most powerful military alliance, protected by its pledge of collective security.
But that’s a red line for Vladimir Putin, who has long said the Western alliance is pushing close to his borders.
Ukraine‘s allies are now coming up with a military plan that the dictator might accept on his border – as they hope it to be strong enough to prevent another Russian invasion.
To complicate things further, the plan will also have to be acceptable to each ally’s domestic politics.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s peace envoy, said last weekend that security guarantees could amount to “Article 5-like protection”.
Nato’s Article 5 is a mutual defence clause that states that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all — and allies must come to its defence.
Colonel Philip Ingram, a former Army intelligence officer and Nato planner, told The Sun that the security options on the table are “virtually endless”.
He said: “It could be providing protection from the air and from the sea, remotely outside Ukraine.
“It could be having a trigger force inside Ukraine, providing training and development for Ukrainian forces, and relieving them of some of their duties in the East.
“Air policing over parts of Ukraine is could also be on the table. At the moment, the options are virtually endless.”
Air power
Trump has long vowed to end America’s involvement in foreign wars and has already ruled out putting American boots on the ground.
But at Monday’s meeting with European allies, the President revealed America would provide guarantees to Ukraine.
It came as a massive relief to European capitals, which have long lobbied for the US to back the valiant Ukrainians.
One way that America could support Ukraine is by providing air power for long-range strikes, which Trump suggested as a possibility.
The White House doubled down on Trump’s statements and said air support was an option being looked at.
“It is an option and a possibility. I won’t certainly rule out anything as far as the military options that the president has at his disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday.
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America has the world’s most powerful air force and already has 35,000 troops stationed in Europe flying over 200 planes from airports in the UK, Italy, Turkey, and Germany.
Putin would have seen their devastating skill when Trump bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities with B-2 stealth bombers in June.
America could even use its fighter jets to enforce a “no-fly” zone over Ukraine and threaten to shoot down any Russian planes that stray too close.
Colonel Ingram said the Americans could provide a lot of capability without having to put troops inside Ukraine.
He said: “Fighters could be placed within easy flying distance of countries that surround Ukraine, and air policing can be provided from there.
“And this is where the Americans provide a lot of capability. They don’t necessarily need to put troops on the ground, but it’s the big transport aircraft to be able to get stuff in and out.
“It’s the extensive air force that they’ve got from the airborne command and control capability – right from their airborne intelligence collection capabilities, down to their fighters and bombers – that they can use as part of a deterrence force.”
Arsenal of democracy
Even without troops, there are a wide variety of ways America could support Ukraine’s defence to counter Putin’s aggression.
It could be as simple as providing more air defence systems to Ukraine or a more involved US role that includes intel sharing and logistical support.
Washington may also ramp up sending military hardware to Ukraine, most likely through Nato funding.
APUkrainian soldiers of 43rd artillery brigade fire by 2s7 self-propelled howitzer towards Russian positions[/caption]
ReutersA serviceman of the 82nd Separate Airborne Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces holds a shell for a D-30 howitzer[/caption]
The US has committed $70bn in military aid so far across a wide range of American military hardware to help the Ukrainians defend their frontlines.
That includes everything from trench warfare, artillery shells, to laser-guided advanced missiles, and rocket launchers.
Now, America is said to have inked a $100bn weapons deal with Ukraine to arm the country to its teeth going forward.
American intelligence is another major thing that the US is likely to continue sharing with Kyiv.
The Pentagon is now understood to be carrying out planning exercises on the type of support Washington could offer that goes beyond simply providing weapons.
American military hardware supplied to Ukraine
Missiles and artillery
ATACMS long-range missiles
HIMARS mobile artillery rocket system
Javelin anti-tank missiles
HAWK missile system
M1 Abrams battle tanks
Howitzers
Precision-guided artillery rounds
Air defence systems
MIM-104 Patriot long-range missile systems
Stinger anti-aircraft missiles
NASAMS short-to medium-range air defence systems
Surveillance radars
Military vehicles
Bradley fighting vehicles
Armoured Personnel Carriers
Humvees
Equipment
Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear protective equipment
Reconnaissance and attack drones
Night vision devices and thermal imagery systems
Body armour and helmets
Colonel Ingram said: “Allies could upgrade Ukrainian military forces up to a very, very strong level, equipped, coherently with Nato-level hardware.
“They could equip Kyiv with more air defence capability, a fleet of modern aircraft with long-range missiles – as we’re seeing the Ukrainians develop themselves with their new Flamingo 3,000-kilometre-long, cruise-type missile.
“That is probably the best way to provide an ironclad security guarantee with signatures and a bit of paper from the West.”
Meanwhile, a naval mission could help secure the Black Sea’s main shipping routes against the Russians, while protecting the body of water on Ukraine’s southern coast.
Fighter jets and military aircraft would also be used to police the skies above the war-torn country, to create a safe space for commercial aviation traffic.
‘Coalition of the Willing’
Trump said that European nations were “willing to put people on the ground” to secure any settlement.
He insisted European powers remained front and centre of policing a future peace.
The Coalition of the Willing – organised by Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron – is set to provide the European arm of Ukraine’s defence.
Some 10 European countries are prepared to send troops to Ukraine once a ceasefire is signed, Bloomberg reports.
The Ministry of Defence said this week said British soldiers will be ready to arrive in Ukraine just “days” after Moscow and Kyiv agree to put fighting on hold.
This would involve a small, multinational force of military trainers deployed inside Ukraine to help drill and develop Kyiv’s armed forces, The Telegraph reports.
APServicemen stand at the end of the Steadfast Dart 2025 exercise, involving 10,000 troops in largest NATO operation[/caption]
GettyTroops attend a military parade under the name ‘Strong White-Red’ on Polish Armed Forces Day in Warsaw, Poland[/caption]
APGerman soldiers take part in the Lithuanian-German division-level international military exercise[/caption]
Boots on the ground
European leaders have also been discussing sending a multinational peacekeeping force to Ukraine.
But many experts have warned it could turn out to be a political and economic fiasco.
Colonel Ingram said: “There will not be a multinational peacekeeping force in Ukraine, because the bill for that would be enormous.
“And from a political perspective, it means if you’re peacekeeping, you have to have the ability to enforce the peace.
“And peace enforcement means that you have to be in a position to attack whichever side breaks the agreement.
“And that would almost certainly be the Russians, and you would have to then be prepared politically to attack them. But that isn’t going to happen.”
Past failures
Current proposals for Ukrainian security guarantees are far from the first.
In December 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum alongside the UK, US, and Russia.
The Ukrainians agreed to give up their Soviet-inherited nuclear weapons in exchange for recognition of their sovereignty and a place on the UN’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Twenty years later, in 2014, however, Russia violated the terms with its illegal annexation of Crimea and the war between Russian-backed separatists and the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region.
Similarly, the Minsk Agreements of 2014 and 2015 were designed to bring an end to the Donbas war.
Mediated by France and Germany, they promised a ceasefire, withdrawal of weapons, and local elections in the separatist-occupied Donbas, but was repeatedly violated and failed to result in lasting peace.
The military expert said sending a “trigger force” instead as an act of deterrence could be a more realistic approach.
“What we’d get into is something that would be a presence with a trigger force that acts as a deterrent for the Russians coming in, because there’d be the threat of an awful lot more happening,” he said.
“I think the realistic outline would be troops on the ground in the west of Ukraine, probably from the UK, France, and Germany.
“They will provide enhanced training to conscripts who’ve been called up to join the Ukrainian military before they go forward into their different units and formations.
“It would also provide logistics support, so that equipments that the Ukrainians own could be repaired and can be sent back to the front line again, again – freeing Ukrainian personnel up.”
But the military analyst fears none of the security guarantees would materialise because Russia will never agree to such demands.
He added: “Putin is controlling the narrative, and he thinks he can still control Donald Trump.
“He will use this opportunity to try and split this coalition of the willing apart even more.”