The two largest U.S. states have launched a congressional mid-decade redistricting war, and several other states are joining the fray ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which Democrats hope will mark the end of Republicans’ control of the federal government.
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Both Republicans and Democrats have in the past utilized redistricting—or the redrawing of congressional district borders following the population census every 10 years—for political gain. But in July, amid pressure from President Donald Trump, a rare mid-decade redistricting effort emerged in Texas, in an apparent attempt to maintain Republicans’ razor-thin majority in Congress.
Read More: The Dangers of America’s Gerrymandering Problem—And How to Fix It
Despite attempts by Texas’ Democratic lawmakers to stall the redistricting plan pushed by state Republicans, the Texan legislature passed a bill that could result in up to five seats changing from blue to red. Gov. Greg Abbott said he would sign it into law “swiftly.”
Texas’ redistricting is only one piece in the President’s vision that he unveiled on Truth Social on Aug. 20: to create a Republican congressional supermajority. Trump said that “Florida, Indiana, and others are looking to do the same,” and that if they succeed as well as end the practice of mail-in voting, Republicans could “pick up 100 more seats, and the CROOKED game of politics is over.”
In addition to five seats in Texas, redistricting in other states may yield up to seven more flipped seats in Congress for Republicans.
Democrats have, in response, launched their own redistricting campaigns. Gov. Gavin Newsom of California has led an “Election Rigging Response” campaign that seeks to redistrict the Golden State and “neutralize” the efforts in Texas by flipping five districts from red to blue. And California isn’t alone; other blue states, such as Illinois, Maryland, and New York, have also expressed a desire to fight back against Republican redistricting with their own redistricting.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D, N.Y.) told CNN’s State of the Union Sunday that there was “a plan to respond as appropriately in New York and in other parts of the country as the circumstances dictate.”
“Right now, this has happened in Texas—California has responded,” Jeffries said. “Let’s see what comes next.”
But it would be an uphill battle for Democrats to fight Republican-led redistricting. Many Democratic strongholds, such as California, give the power to redraw maps to independent commissions instead of the state legislature to try to eliminate politically biased gerrymandering.
Today, the gerrymandering efforts by both parties are also not universally welcomed. Rep. Mike Lawler (R, N.Y.) suggested to CBS News that such mid-decade map redrawing should be banned, even when the President approves of it. “I think gerrymandering is fundamentally wrong,” Lawler said. “It is at the heart of why Congress has been broken for so many years.”
Lawler said he plans to introduce a bill to Congress to end gerrymandering, as well as a slew of other congressional reforms. But he knows his legislation is unlikely to pass. “There’s going to be strong headwinds from both parties,” Lawler said, “because frankly, I don’t think both parties are interested in reforming the way Congress functions.”
Here are the following states after California and Texas to watch for redistricting battles.
Democrats
Illinois
Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois told late-night host Stephen Colbert earlier this month that a similar effort to what California’s Newsom spearheaded “is possible” in his state. Pritzker even echoed Newsom’s threats to Trump: “We’ve got to fight fire with fire.”
Illinois redrew its congressional maps back in 2021 and currently has a congressional delegation that is 14-3 Democratic.
There are doubts, however, whether Pritzker could successfully lead a redistricting effort. Republican Illinois House Minority Leader Tony McCombie told local news outlet WBEZ Chicago that she doesn’t think Pritzker has enough political clout to railroad a redistricting plan. A spokesperson for Democratic Illinois House Speaker Emanuel Welch also told WBEZ that redistricting is currently not on the state legislature’s agenda, saying they “have no[t] had any new conversations about new congressional maps in the House.”
A new redistricting effort would also find it challenging to yield more Democratic seats. Two of the three Republican districts in Illinois voted for Trump by more than 40 percentage points in the November election, per the St. Louis Public Radio.
Maryland
Gov. Wes Moore reiterated to CBS on Sunday that “all options are on the table” when it comes to fighting Republican gerrymandering efforts.
“I want to make sure that we have fair lines and fair seats, where we don’t have situations where politicians are choosing voters, but that voters actually have a chance to choose their elected officials,” he said. “We need to be able to have fair maps.”
Only one of Maryland’s eight U.S. congressional seats is held by a Republican—Rep. Andy Harris who was elected to represent the state’s first district. But Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon introduced a bill that would force Maryland to redraw its lines if another state proposed a new map mid-decade.
An 8-0 Democratic map in the state, however, could face legal challenges. In 2022, a state court struck down a Democratic congressional map drawn in 2021 that would have had the same effect, ruling that it was an illegal partisan gerrymander and ordering the state legislature to redraw the lines for the 2022 election. “The limitation of the undue extension of power by any branch of government must be exercised to ensure that the will of the people is heard, no matter under which political placard those governing reside,” the ruling said.
New York
“If Republicans are willing to rewrite these rules to give themselves an advantage, then they’re leaving us no choice; we must do the same,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said on Aug. 4, as she stood with Texas state lawmakers who fled the state to delay Republican redistricting plans.
Hochul said she wants to abolish her state’s Independent Redistricting Commission, which was established in 2014 and is tasked with drawing districts for the U.S. House as well as the state legislature. Hochul said she would return the power to redraw to Democrats in the state legislature, adding that this would be necessary because “the playing field has changed dramatically.”
New York currently has a U.S. congressional delegation of 19-7 in favor of Democrats.
Any redistricting in New York would require a constitutional amendment. Though New York’s constitution has assigned the commission to redraw maps, the commission itself faced a deadlock in 2022, and a court-appointed special master had to intervene and draw the congressional and state Senate maps for New York. Those maps were set to remain in place until at least 2031.
State senator Michael Gianaris introduced a resolution hoping to amend the New York Constitution to allow for earlier redistricting, though such an effort can only be put to voters as early as 2027.
Republicans
Florida
Florida’s current map already gives Republicans a clear advantage, with a 20-8 congressional delegation. But Gov. Ron DeSantis said in a news conference in Melbourne, Fla., on Aug. 11 that the state is open to mid-decade redistricting after the President pushed for a new mid-decade census that would remove undocumented migrants from the total population figures that determine congressional apportionment. DeSantis said the latest census and subsequent redistricting could deliver Florida at least three new seats: “We have 28 now, we might have 29, 30, 31, maybe. Who knows? So obviously you would have to redraw the lines then.”
DeSantis added that “even if they don’t do a new census, even if they don’t revise the current census, I do think that it is appropriate” to redistrict because some of the districts are “malapportioned” due to the state’s explosive population growth.
There’s also a clearer opportunity for Florida to start redistricting, after the state’s Supreme Court—packed with DeSantis appointees—last month upheld a map DeSantis pushed in 2022 that eliminated a majority-Black district and instead divided the area among three Republican-held districts.
Republican State House Speaker Daniel Perez announced a new congressional redistricting committee after the ruling was issued. “It is important to acknowledge that while this may be an opportunity, it is not an expected one, and we do not have the capacity to engage in the full redistricting process experienced during the 2020-2022 term. Thus, we will focus our inquiry on the Congressional map, which was the subject of the recent Florida Supreme Court case, and any relevant legal questions,” Perez wrote in a memo.
Indiana
The Trump Administration exerted pressure on Indiana to turn its 7-2 Republican-majority congressional delegation into a 9-0 one, with Vice President J.D. Vance flying to the state to convey the President’s prerogative to state leaders and lawmakers.
But GOP lawmakers reportedly remain divided on whether to proceed with the redistricting.
Former Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, who still exerts some influence in the state’s conservative circles, told CNN that while redistricting could be “appropriate in some places,” he doesn’t see Indiana as one of those places. “I think we have pretty fairly drawn lines now, and I don’t see any good reason that they should be tampered with out of cycle.”
The New York Times reported that at least 10 Republican state legislators have shown some defiance against Trump’s push. “If we do that now, the rulebook gets tossed out the window,” state representative Jim Lucas said. State senator Jim Tomes reportedly said of the current maps: “In my opinion, it’s pretty doggone good… and they should leave it alone.”
Other Indiana Republicans, however, have come out in support of the redistricting push. U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz posted on social media that she “fully supports” mid-cycle redistricting. State senator Gary Byrne told local paper Southern News and Tribune that he believes redistricting is a “constitutional way for statehouses to control what’s going on in D.C.” and that he would personally support a new congressional map that would allow Republicans to “gain a seat or two.”
Incumbent Republican Gov. Mike Braun told Indiana’s Capital Chronicle that he has not decided yet on whether he’ll call a special session to redraw Indiana’s map, but he said that he and fellow GOP state lawmakers are “considering it seriously.”
Missouri
On Aug. 21, Trump posted on Truth Social: “The Great State of Missouri is now IN. I’m not surprised. It is a great State with fabulous people. I won it, all 3 times, in a landslide. We’re going to win the Midterms in Missouri again, bigger and better than ever before!”
Republican Missouri Gov. Mike Kehoe, however, has not committed to any redistricting plans. Kehoe’s spokesperson Gabby Picard said in a statement that Kehoe “continues to have conversations with House and Senate leadership to assess options for a special session that would allow the General Assembly to provide congressional districts that best represent Missourians.”
Missouri currently has eight U.S. congressional seats, six of which are Republican-held. The current congressional map was approved in 2022, and the Missouri Independent reports that Democrats will fight any efforts to redraw the map.
Ohio
Ohio, which has a congressional delegation of 10-5 leaning Republican, is the only state actually due for a redistricting before 2026. Redistricting laws in the state say that any map that the General Assembly draws that fails to get the support of at least half of the members of both parties will lead to the activation of the Ohio Redistricting Commission. If the commission also fails to get bipartisan agreement on the map, or if the legislature passes a map via a simple majority, that map will only be enforced for four years instead of 10. In 2021, the General Assembly passed a congressional map without adequate Democratic support.
The General Assembly now needs to approve—with at least 60% of the legislature, per the Ohio Constitution—a redistricting plan by the end of September this year.
Republicans have a clear advantage—with a supermajority in the state legislature, a majority of the seats in the Ohio Redistricting Commission, and almost all of the seats in the Ohio State Supreme Court—and could flip two to three seats.