The federal government is set to shut down on Wednesday unless Congress manages to strike a last-minute agreement to pass a stopgap spending bill before the Sept. 30 funding deadline. While it’s become common practice for Congress to avert a shutdown at the last possible moment, such an outcome appears increasingly unlikely as lawmakers have departed Washington with no agreement in sight.
Under a shutdown, federal workers would miss paychecks, families could see delays in food assistance, and air travel might slow as airport screeners and air traffic controllers are asked to work without pay. But in a departure from how past shutdowns have been managed, the White House budget office under President Donald Trump is instructing agencies to prepare plans for permanent layoffs in programs that would lose funding. The guidance, issued in a memo obtained by TIME, directs agencies to begin drafting reduction-in-force plans in the event of a shutdown on Oct. 1 that could eliminate jobs in areas Trump has sought to scale back, escalating the standoff with Democrats and raising the stakes for hundreds of thousands of federal employees.
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The mass firing plan underscores the unusual leverage a shutdown would give Trump, who has proven more willing in his second term to abruptly halt long-standing, far-reaching government programs, and would have wide latitude to further do so amid a shutdown. The looming funding deadline has left Democrats in a bind, fearing that either outcome could ultimately strengthen Trump’s grip over the federal purse and erode Congress’s constitutional power to set spending priorities.
Even though Republicans control both chambers of Congress, at least seven Democrats in the Senate will need to vote in favor of a stopgap spending bill to break the filibuster and pass the measure. Democratic leaders are demanding a permanent extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies, and the restoration of foreign aid and public broadcasting money Trump clawed back earlier this year. Trump has refused to meet with Democratic leaders amid the standoff.
The last government shutdown occurred in December 2018, under Trump’s first term, when most government activity came to a halt for 34 days, the longest in the modern era.
Here are some of the ways a federal government shutdown will impact Americans.
How will a shutdown affect federal workers?
If the government shuts down, tens of thousands of federal employees would be furloughed and sent home without pay. Those who are deemed essential workers, such as employees in public safety and national security, would report to work without pay. Once federal funding resumes, the government is required by law to repay federal employees and military personnel. Federal contractors would not be compensated for missed time.
This time, however, the Trump Administration is threatening to make a potential shutdown more painful for the federal workforce. The Office of Management and Budget has ordered agencies to draw up reduction-in-force plans that would permanently cut positions in programs without dedicated funding streams. That approach breaks with decades of precedent, when shutdowns were disruptive but temporary, and has injected new uncertainty into an already tense standoff.
Many federal agencies are still reeling from widespread workforce reductions earlier this year. Since Trump’s return to office, roughly 200,000 federal workers have left the government, though some were later hired back. It’s unclear which agencies would face the deepest cuts if the government shuts down on Oct. 1, but programs without mandatory funding—such as many domestic policy initiatives, regulatory offices, and research programs—would be the most vulnerable, according to the OMB. “Programs that did not benefit from an infusion of mandatory appropriations will bear the brunt of a shutdown,” the OMB memo states.
What does a shutdown mean for air travel?
Airports are among the most visible pressure points during a shutdown. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents and air traffic controllers are considered essential and must continue working, but they do so without pay.
In the 2018-2019 shutdown, many TSA officers called in sick, leading to closed checkpoints and longer lines. A shortage of air traffic controllers temporarily grounded flights at LaGuardia Airport and delayed travel across the East Coast.
What does a shutdown mean for Social Security payments? What about Medicare or Medicaid?
Agencies that have already received funding approval or operate on a permanent funding basis are supposed to continue to operate as usual during a shutdown. Both the Social Security Administration and the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services fall under that category. Thus, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid would continue to run during a shutdown.
However, in past shutdowns, both agencies have cut back on some services. Some field offices reduced operations, halting the issuance of new Social Security cards, replacement Medicare cards, and benefit verifications. The Social Security Administration’s last contingency plan envisioned furloughing thousands of employees—a scale that could again slow responses for beneficiaries needing assistance.
How would a shutdown impact veterans?
The Veterans Health Administration is funded through advance appropriations, meaning much of its work continues even if annual funding lapses. But services outside the health system, including some administrative functions and benefits processing, could be delayed.
What does a shutdown mean for food assistance programs like SNAP and WIC?
A loss in funding could significantly disrupt the federal Women, Infants and Children (WIC) program, which provides groceries to low-income families. A White House official tells TIME that the program is on track to run out of the money it would need to accept new applicants starting Oct. 1. If that happens, states are expected to stop providing assistance to eligible new applicants almost immediately. The Trump Administration previously requested Congress to approve additional funds for the WIC nutrition program. That funding is included in the stopgap spending bill that passed in the House, but is short of votes in the Senate.
“If Democrats shut down the government, they will be responsible for the WIC program not having enough resources to add new beneficiaries,” the White House official said.
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), also known as food stamps, would continue during a shutdown as it is considered mandatory spending. But the Agriculture Department would only be authorized to send out benefits for 30 days after a shutdown begins, meaning a prolonged shutdown could impact the program.
Are the national parks going to close?
During a shutdown, recreational facilities funded by the federal government would be forced to close, leaving travelers and tourists unable to visit national park facilities or the Smithsonian museums in Washington. The National Park Service estimated that a 2013 government shutdown led to a $500 million loss in visitor spending nationwide.
Does the mail stop getting delivered during a shutdown?
No, the Postal Service is self-funded through its own revenues, not annual appropriations. Mail delivery, package services, and post office operations continue without interruption.
Is ICE impacted by a government shutdown?
Immigration enforcement is considered essential, so agents with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will remain on duty during a shutdown. Detention facilities will also continue to operate, though court hearings for many immigration cases may be delayed because they rely on Justice Department appropriations.