This article is part of The D.C. Brief, TIME’s politics newsletter. Sign up here to get stories like this sent to your inbox.
James Talarico, the secularist seminarian armed with a biblical rejoinder for what he sees as politics’ sins, commanded a sizable lead Tuesday in Texas’ hard-fought Democratic primary, setting up a campaign push toward November once seen as a hail mary for his party. It was the opening night of primary season in the United States, and it appeared that an argument grounded in electability this fall prevailed, or at least found open ears.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]
“This is a people-powered movement to take on this broken, corrupt political system. This is truly a campaign of, by, and for the people,” Talarico said at campaign headquarters just after midnight and before the race was called. He had won over 53% of the estimated 80% of votes counted thus far, according to the Associated Press.
“This is proof that there is something happening in Texas. Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of a hope,” he said. “And a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing.”
His opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, did not share that view. Despite Talarico’s commanding lead, she made no movement toward a concession. Earlier in the night, the combative progressive suggested the results would not be known until Wednesday or later after the Texas Supreme Court blocked a Dallas judge who ordered polls to stay open two extra hours after complaints from voters who were turned away. “I can tell you now that people have been disenfranchised,” she told supporters.
On the Republican side, things were heading toward another two bitter months of a bruising campaign between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and challenger Ken Paxton, the hard-right and scandal-soaked state Attorney General. Neither candidate topped 50% because Rep. Wesley Hunt made it a three-way contest. That run-off is scheduled for May 26 and gives Democrats a head start in what is shaping up to be a tough and costly battle that could decide which party runs the Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term.
“If he’s nominated, there’s a high risk that Paxton would lose the Senate seat, taking five congressional seats down with him,” Cornyn said Tuesday night, continuing a months-long animus toward his foe. “Just like the primary, we have a plan to win the runoff, and we are in the process of executing it. Judgment Day is coming for Ken Paxton.”
Again, electability was the core argument on that side, too.
The stakes were incredibly high as both parties confronted questions about identity, Trumpism, Texas’ soul, and, yes, electability. The results may offer a preview of party posture in other primaries and head-to-head match-ups come November. On its own, though, it suggested Democrats’ messy search for their path forward remains, at best, wandering. Republicans, too, are going to have a rough go of it as they struggle to figure out how to win without Trump as a vote animator.
The race drew massive interest, both on the ground and from afar. More than 1.5 million votes were cast among Democrats—more than double the numbers seen in 2022. Among Republicans, 1.3 million voters did the same, up about 30% from levels seen in 2022, according to VoteHub.
It also drew enormous warchests. A record $122 million has been spent so far, and the GOP runoff will drive the spending even higher as the contest between the establishment-favored Cornyn and the burn-it-down partisan Paxton will come with trucks of cash.
It also laid bare a choice for the GOP: the establishment-minded insider who would cross the aisle for deals or a MAGA fighter who delights in the partisan stunts. It could be a hint about what the Trump Administration may soon find in the Upper Chamber—assuming the seat stays red.
Washington Republicans had cheered on Cornyn, who just a year ago was in the mix to lead the party in the Senate and instead had to dump millions to make it this far in his attempt to win a fifth term. The conventional wisdom had been that Cornyn would be a gimme for the GOP while Paxton and his baggage—the Republicans in the state legislature impeached him—would be a drag, especially if Talarico emerged.
And emerge, he did. The campaign had been trending this way for weeks but things took a hairpin turn when CBS censored a Talarico interview with Stephen Colbert, saying it should not do political interviews when voting was underway. Instead, Colbert posted the video online, Talarico raised millions of dollars that helped him prove he, too, could be a fighter, and voters responded.
For months, Talarico adopted a grind-it-out mentality. He showed up in GOP strongholds he was unlikely to win in a general election but where Democrats told me they had not seen a candidate show up in ages. During a weekend swing through West Texas last month, Talarico dropped off the trail long enough to preach at Lubbock’s Covenant Presbyterian, where the faithful hung on every word of his 10-minute sermon.
“West Texas deserves better than it’s got,” the Rev. Davis Price told me after Talarico’s lesson last month. “That’s the work he’s here to do.”
Talarico’s events were packed and disparate, while Crockett favored the viral moment. It was like watching two different campaigns: one rooted in the by-the-book strategy and the other born out of a new era and style. While the pair mostly shared a progressive footing, their styles were unmistakably unique to their candidacies. But no one could say each was not authentically Texan.
In his final push, Talarico rode confidence. At his last rally on Monday, he told the Houston crowd a victory was on the horizon. “I can feel it in my bones that we are going to win this election,” he said. “We are going to take back our state and we are going to take back our country.”
Left unsaid: the last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Texas was 1988; Talarico was born a year later. The last Democrat who held the Senate seat in question was Lyndon Baines Johnson.
Crockett seemed to understand this was where the race was heading. On Monday, she told reporters that Democrats needed to come together in short order as soon as a winner emerged. “My message is one of unity,” she said. “Because no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee, ultimately, we are not the bad guys.”
But as counting was ongoing, Crockett took the stage at her headquarters to signal that unity was not in the immediate offing.
“We’re not going to have election results tonight in my opinion,” Crockett said as the state Supreme Court stepped in to stop extended voting hours in Dallas County—her home base and the state’s second-biggest county—where confusion scrambled counting. “Unfortunately, this is what Republicans like to do. They specifically targeted Dallas County and I think we all know why. So I want you to enjoy yourselves but I won’t be back tonight because I have no idea of when we’re going to get results.”
Meanwhile, voters remained in line as the clock neared midnight in Houston, another Crockett-friendly area. Clerks would not start counting same-day votes until polls closed, leaving a huge number of ballots on standby.
It left Talarico’s campaign in a moment of paralysis, because, while they maintained the confidence through the day that they had carried for weeks, it was a tricky task to declare victory in the absence of a shared understanding of the results. Talarico’s advisers understand there is work to be done to bring Crockett’s base—namely, Black women—into the Democratic tent and ready to work to win in November as a joint effort. Talarico prevailed on momentum in South Texas, suggesting a strong showing among Hispanic voters, but he got blown out in Dallas and parts of East Texas, which was Crockett country.
Meanwhile, some advocacy groups were sending statements about Talarico’s success before the AP made any move.
Crockett’s nouveau approach to campaigning caught up with her. She was late to TV, focused almost exclusively on her home turf of Dallas and East Texas, and messaged heavily to Black voters. She eschewed a traditional campaign and a long-standing campaign manager, instead recording marathon videos she posted on social media. The novel approach to campaigning excited her base but frustrated Democrats in Washington who saw the race as winnable with the right strategy. Her hard pivot to negative messaging after the Colbert surge soured the few allies she still had in D.C.
Texas is home to the longest statewide dryspell for Democrats in the nation. The last Democrat to win statewide there was in 1994. Senate Democrats’ campaign arm had not included Texas in their path to the majority, instead looking to hold their current seats and flip others in Alaska, Maine, North Carolina, and Ohio. Texas would be a bonus, not a requirement.
But Democrats haven’t had a candidate with crossover appeal like Talarico in a while. Recent Democratic stars rising out of Texas titillated the base, not the middle let alone the right. Democrats cannot win in Texas without a few Republicans and independents giving into their lib-curiosity. And Talarico’s pragmatic facade creates what party strategists call “a permission structure,” in that it’s OK to dip a toe on the other side of the creek.
Talarico clearly understands the task ahead.
“We are not just trying to win an election. We are trying to fundamentally change our politics. And it’s working,” he said.
Or at least it seemed to get him past Tuesday’s lead-off primary.
Make sense of what matters in Washington. Sign up for the D.C. Brief newsletter.