Lightning’s Options for Replacing JJ Moser – The Hockey Writers Tampa Bay Lightning Latest News, Analysis & More

Following a spill on the ice during the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 8-3 win over the Calgary Flames on Dec. 12, J.J. Moser was placed on injured reserve. According to head coach Jon Cooper, Moser would be out for a few weeks. However, the team announced on Thursday that he will miss 8-10 weeks with a lower-body injury, meaning he won’t return until February.

Luckily, the Lightning have a rotation of seven defensemen worthy of a spot in the starting lineup. they have played more games with 11 forwards and seven defensemen than any other team in the NHL this season. Despite their depth on the blue line, Moser will be missed for his services on the top pairing with Victor Hedman. He has been vital to Hedman’s revival at five-on-five and in the defensive zone this season.

Related: Lightning’s Victor Hedman Having One of His Best Seasons Yet

For the next two months, who’s the best candidate to replace Moser on the top pairing? Given the tight race in the Atlantic Division, every point in the standings is critical.

Candidates to Fill JJ Moser’s Role on the Top Pairing

Even with Moser out of the lineup, the Lightning have six defensemen the coaching staff can trust and feel confident with on the ice. Furthermore, they have defenders like Declan Carlile and Maxwell Crozier in the American Hockey League in case of further injuries.

What does the data say about how Hedman performs best on the ice at five-on-five? Here’s ice time (TOI), unblocked shot attempt for share (FF%), expected goals for percentage (xGF%), and expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) for all Tampa Bay’s right-side defensemen while paired with Hedman.

Darren Raddysh – 121 minutes, 55.9 FF%, 59.6 xGF%, 2.09 xGA/60
Nick Perbix – 42 minutes, 56.5 FF%, 56.3 xGF%, 1.98 xGA/60
Erik Cernak – 24 minutes, 48.5 FF%, 65.0 xGF%, 1.74 xGA/60

Outside of Raddysh, the sample size is too small to draw accurate conclusions. Remember, Emil Lilleberg plays much better alongside Nick Perbix than Darren Raddysh, while Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak are an elite shutdown pairing against the opponent’s top lines.

In 102 minutes together, Lilleberg and Raddysh control just 38.3% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%) at five-on-five, one of the worst combinations on Tampa Bay’s blue line this season. On the other hand, Lilleberg and Perbix control 50.3% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%) in 232 minutes. So, in double the ice time, Lilleberg and Perbix appear to control the pace of play much better than Lilleberg and Raddysh.

On top of that, the Lightning re-acquired McDonagh specifically to revive a struggling Cernak. That pairing has spent the most time together this season with 378 minutes at five-on-five. Against some of the league’s best talent, the pairing controls 51.3% of the on-ice expected goal share (xGF%).

Therefore, the easy choice is Raddysh, who has had historical success alongside Hedman. Furthermore, Raddysh and Hedman have the largest sample of minutes among the options, showing the pairing’s solid play is replicable over two months.

Lightning’s Blue Line Depth

With Moser in the lineup, the Lightning might still look to upgrade the blue line at the trade deadline. A target like Will Borgen from the Seattle Kraken was intriguing, but he joined the New York Rangers in the Kaapo Kakko deal. Meanwhile, more notable names like Rasmus Andersson continue to float around in trade rumors.

Nevertheless, unlike many teams, the Lightning have the defensive depth to support these long-term injuries. Plug-in players like Raddysh are signed for under $1 million per season on multi-year deals, allowing a cap-strapped Tampa Bay team to save money to improve other areas of the roster. While Moser’s absence won’t go unnoticed, the Lightning seems to have things covered on the back end for now.

All Data via NaturalStatTrick