An Expert Explains Palisades Fire’s Behavior

The Palisades fire continues to challenge firefighters.

The fire’s northern edge is the area of biggest concern, from Mandeville Canyon on the northeastern side to Monte Nido on the northwestern edge and the Topanga area and Sylvia Park that fall between, said Robert Clark, a fire behavior analyst for Cal Fire on Incident Management Team 2.

The Palisades fire is a tricky inferno to wrangle and it’s difficult to forecast where the flames will go next as it’s moving through a complex topography of mountains and canyons amid winds that shift and ebb and flow. Some areas in the canyons will get sheltered by the winds, but then topography takes over and drives flames.

“It’s always a battle between the wind speed and the topography, one can overwhelm the other,” Mr. Clark said.

In the Santa Monica Mountains, about three miles north of Malibu, the small residential community of Monte Nido is of particular concern, especially with winds expected to pick up late Monday night into late Tuesday morning.

The fire was stalled in the Mandeville Canyon area Saturday and overnight with air tankers dropping fire retardant and helicopters releasing water, but the area is not out of danger yet.

“With the forecast weather, there’s always a chance that with those gusty winds the fire would spread or spot outside of our containment lines,” Mr. Clark said.

With the current Santa Ana wind pattern, Mr. Clark said areas on the eastern side of the fire — the Riviera neighborhood in Pacific Palisades and Brentwood Heights and other communities just west of the 405 — are somewhat sheltered from the gusty conditions. “The strongest winds are not forecast to occur in that area,” Mr. Clark said. “It could still get breezy but not as strong as the western portion of the fire.”

Santa Monica, to the south, is not threatened by fire right now because flames have already been suppressed in those areas. “We would not anticipate any fire spread down into that area,” Mr. Clark said.

The fire’s far northeastern edge near Encino is another area where firefighters have slowed forward movement. Mr. Clark said the fire has burned into San Vicente Mountain Park and stopped there with control lines made with bulldozers and using trails, fire roads and the unpaved section of Mulholland Drive.

“You never say never, though, because there’s always a potential for some anomaly to occur,” Mr. Clark said.

Critical fire conditions — with winds, low relative humidity and dry vegetation — are expected to continue to be a concern on the Palisades fire through at least Wednesday evening.