Lightning Mid-Season Report Cards: Third-Line Forwards – The Hockey Writers Tampa Bay Lightning Latest News, Analysis & More

The Tampa Bay Lightning are a few games behind the rest of the NHL, but it’s still time to grade every Lightning player’s performance through the first half of the season.

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I’ve broken down the lineup, and this article will focus on all the third-line forwards. Earlier this month, I assigned grades to the defense core, first-line forwards, and second-line forwards. The “third line” was determined by receiving the most ice time together outside of the top six forwards.

Nick Paul: B-

The Lightning are in a tough spot with Nick Paul. He’s head and shoulders above the rest of the bottom-six forwards on the Lightning and has minimal help. However, he’s much better suited to play center than wing in the top six. He won’t get minutes over Brayden Point or Anthony Cirelli, so the Lightning plug him at third-line center with no support.

Despite minimal support, Paul has scored 11 goals and recorded 25 points in 37 games, with 16 of his points coming at five on five. While Paul has excelled on the offensive side of the game, his defensive play severely hinders his mid-season grading. His 46.63% on-ice expected goals for percentage (xGF%) ranks 10th on the Lightning forward core via Natural Stat Trick.

Paul found the most success on the right wing next to Cirelli and Brandon Hagel at the start of the season, where his underlying analytics looked much better. Excluding those minutes with the second line, Paul’s expected goals for percentage drops to 43.37%. Tampa Bay must find support for their third-line center for the second half of the season and playoffs.

Mitchell Chaffee: D+

Mitchell Chaffee got serious recognition from Tampa Bay’s coaching staff towards the end of the 2023-24 season. He’s a solid forechecker who hustles every night. At the start of the season, Chaffee came out with extreme confidence by carrying the puck through the neutral zone and controlling his entries. However, now that his early-season shooting bender has expired, Chaffee hasn’t been the most effective player.

He’s still managed to outscore his opponents 16-15 at five on five, but his 37.67% expected goals for percentage ranks bottom five in the NHL amongst forwards with more than 200 minutes of ice time this season. In other words, with Chaffee on the ice, the Lightning are significantly outplayed in terms of shots, scoring chances, and shot quality.

Tampa Bay could use Chaffee’s unsustainable shooting percentage as a trade chip for a more established depth player at the trade deadline. While his cap hit of $800,000 is very affordable, the Lightning would rather replace one of the league’s worst five-on-five play-driving forwards.

Gage Goncalves: D

There was plenty of hype surrounding Gage Goncalves joining the team. The rookie tore up the American Hockey League (AHL) with the Syracuse Crunch and deserved a fair shot at the NHL level. However, Goncalves was not impactful for the Lightning with just two points in 26 games played this season.

Controlling just 43.20% of the expected goal share, Goncalves was dominated for the majority of his minutes in the NHL. Once a promising Lightning prospect, Goncalves likely caps out at a decent bottom-six forward in the league. He struggled to produce much offense but was solid on the defensive zone breakouts.

The Lightning have sent Goncalves back down to the AHL, and have gone with the veteran Cam Atkinson recently in the lineup. Tampa Bay needs help in the bottom six for the second straight season. Their last two lines are an offensive blackhole outside of Paul.

Lightning’s Third Line Remains a Weak Spot

The Lightning’s third line is an offensive black hole that hasn’t driven play at five-on-five. Paul is a solid third-line center with no support from younger players like Chaffee and Goncalves. The Lightning face off next against the red-hot Detroit Red Wings at home on Jan. 18 at 7 p.m. EST.