Comparing Craig Berube’s Maple Leafs to Sheldon Keefe’s Tenure – The Hockey Writers Toronto Maple Leafs Latest News, Analysis & More

The Toronto Maple Leafs are slightly more than halfway done with the 2024-25 regular season and find themselves with the best record in the Atlantic Division (30-16-2 for a .646 point percentage). They have the second-highest point percentage in the Eastern Conference behind the Washington Capitals and have won seven of their last 10. At the 48-game mark last season, Toronto was 25-15-8, four points behind where they are now. Many fans have attributed this to new head coach Craig Berube, who took over the gig from Sheldon Keefe this past offseason. The problem with this, though, is that the underlying statistics don’t necessarily match the better on-ice results.

2024-25 Team is Weaker at 5-on-5 Despite Improved Record

On paper, it might seem like this season’s Maple Leafs are better than they were last season. After all, the record is better, so they must be doing something right… right? That hasn’t quite been the case, and the concerns some had with Berube’s system have been coming to light under the surface. Principally, the offensive output has worsened.

Related: Mitch Marner’s Under-Appreciated 2024-25 Season

At five-on-five, this season’s Maple Leafs are averaging four fewer shot attempts per 60 minutes, resulting in three fewer shots on net per 60. They’re also down in scoring chances, averaging 26.1 per 60 minutes this season as opposed to 27.2 last season. High-danger chances have also decreased from 12.61 to 10.83. Five-on-five expected goals per 60 minutes (xGF/60) are down from 2.73 to 2.44. These may not seem like significant downgrades, but they have conglomerated in averaging nearly 0.5 fewer actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

The defensive side of things hasn’t improved much, either. They are admittedly allowing fewer high-danger chances (10.23 vs. 11.26) and scoring chances (26.64 vs. 27.19) per 60 minutes, though they are allowing more shot attempts and shots on goal. Their expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) have improved from 2.56 to 2.46. Basically, what I’m getting at here, is that their marginal defensive improvements under Berube are overshadowed by the downturn in offensive output. The difference between the offense that Keefe’s system brought versus Berube’s dump-and-chase, crash-and-bang system is much greater than the difference their respective defensive schemes have brought.

In fact, the Maple Leafs this season have a sub-50% share of expected goals, shot attempts, and scoring chances. So while yes, the defensive metrics may have marginally improved, that certainly isn’t cause for celebration while the offense struggles under Berube. This was an issue during his tenure with the St. Louis Blues as well — no one doubts the strength of his defensive system, but it certainly comes at the expense of offensive output.

The difference between the two records and underlying statistics boils down to one thing and one thing only: goaltending. The goaltending that Berube has received has been unbelievably strong, between Anthony Stolarz’s miraculous start to the season to Joseph Woll‘s dominance since returning from injury. Last season, goaltending was often a source of soreness for the Maple Leafs. Woll was only able to play 25 games last season due to injuries, and as a result, the team had to rely on the likes of Ilya Samsonov (who was sent down to the minor leagues at one point because of his poor performance) and journeyman Martin Jones (who does not have an NHL contract this season.) Their offense buoyed their victories — which it really should, considering the personnel.

As I said, though, the goaltending this season versus last season has been night and day. Stolarz, who should hopefully be returning from injury within the next couple of weeks, boasts an immaculate .927 save percentage (SV%) and 2.15 goals-against average (GAA) on the season. Woll, who started off strongly when he first returned, has fallen off a bit but still holds an above-average .907 SV% and 2.69 GAA. The two have combined to save 21.3 goals above expected.

If Goaltending Falls Off, Maple Leafs Are in Trouble

As previously mentioned, Woll has slowed down after a marvelous start to his 2024-25 season. He has allowed three or more goals in five straight games and six of the last seven. Thankfully, the offense was there to support him more so than they have in the other 40-plus games and the Maple Leafs won five of those seven games. Still, the point stands that the underlying metrics suggest the offensive output is temporary, so if the goaltending falls off, Toronto could be in big trouble down the stretch. Stolarz should be back soon to reinstitute the 50/50 split that was previously in effect, and hopefully, that will be able to relieve Woll of some of the workload and pressure so he can reassert the dominance he had earlier in the campaign.