A Bull Scenario V01 – Very Bullish and Quick for INDEX:BTCUSD by askocaturk

It’s been a long time to post about crypto. I was simply waiting for a signal to see if we go down or we go up. There has been a parallel range between 20-30K and BTC was consolidating there. It was still not obvious which way to go. After crossing 33K and sustaining above there for some time, I turned bullish now and prepare my self for bullish scenarios. There are many potential ones but let’s start with the very quick version.

Taking Elliot Wave Theory as a reference, I think we are in wave 5 which is the last wave of the cycle started in Dec. 2018 and more in detail in sub waves of 5.3.1. So, we ‘ll probably finalize 5.3.1 somewhere here or around 42-44K and then we’ll see a correction till 30-33K. With the final altcoin run, I increased the amount of BTC and already converted back some of them to BTC. I’m now waiting for one more leg up. Before finalizing 5.3.1, my plan is to adjust the portfolio as 60% BTC – 10% ETH – 30% ALTs (excluding stables like USDC, USDT).

When we see the correction (5.3.2), alts will most likely will go down more than BTC meaning that altcoins’ BTC pairs will go down. After the correction, 5.3.3 will start which is the wildest/longest sub wave. It’s very probable to cross the previous ATH and go even beyond a little. Having a bigger portion of BTC in the portfolio during this wave will be favorable. Around the previous ATH, it may be good to time convert BTCs into altcoins because the biggest gains will come with the altcoin rally at the end.

After hitting 69-70K, it’s highly probable to see a correction of 25-35%. In this case 5.3.4 will be completed. After such a correction, I would adjust the portfolio as 20% BTC and 80% ETH + altcoins and wait for the last wave of 5.3.5. It’s very critical here as the peak will be found soon and the 6 years of cycle will be completed. Before the peak found, the target is to reach satisfactory gains. It’s important to cash out at some point!

Let see how it works. I’m just bullish now.

There are many different approaches and views which can easily generate various scenarios and I’ll be posting some other ones as well.

I always keep some cash for bearish scenarios. It’s crucial to be prepared for a very negative price actions after seeing the pandemics, wars, global recession risks.

These are just my opinions based on my experience of crypto and cycles – not a financial advise.

Please do your own your research and act accordingly.

Would be appreciated if you like and comment.

Cheers!!!