EUR/USD Long-Term Outlook for 2024 for OANDA:EURUSD by f3rnandomoreira

Key Observations:

Fibonacci Retracement and Supply Area: The pair has retraced to a critical Fibonacci level (61.8%), which aligns with a supply area. This confluence often acts as a strong resistance level in forex trading, suggesting a consolidation of price action at this point.

Rejection at the 61.8% Fibonacci Level: A rejection at this level typically indicates a potential reversal of the previous downtrend. The fact that this rejection is occurring at a significant Fibonacci level adds weight to the potential for a trend reversal.

Presence of a Strong Bullish Candle: The emergence of a strong bullish candle on the monthly chart is a key indicator that buying momentum is gaining strength. This is often seen as a bullish signal, especially when it follows a period of downtrend or consolidation.

Change of Character in Price Action: There has been a notable change of character in the price action of the EUR/USD pair. This change is typically indicative of a shift in market sentiment and can precede a trend reversal.

Expectation of Upward Movement: Given the technical indicators and the change in market sentiment, there is an expectation that prices will move upwards towards the previously known resistance level. This upward movement is likely to be driven by increased buying pressure.

Long-Term Outlook for 2024: Looking towards 2024, the analysis suggests that the bottom for the EUR/USD pair may have been established. If this is the case, it could signal the start of a more sustained upward trend, with the EUR likely to gain strength against the USD.

Potential Bullish Trend for EUR: The combination of technical indicators and changing market dynamics supports the belief that the EUR will rise throughout 2024. This would be consistent with a reversal pattern where the market has found a bottom and is starting to exhibit bullish momentum.

Conclusion:

Based on the current technical analysis and market sentiment, the EUR/USD pair shows strong signs of a potential bullish trend. The alignment of the Fibonacci retracement with a known supply area, coupled with a strong bullish candle and a change in market character, suggests that the EUR may strengthen against the USD in the upcoming period, particularly throughout 2024. As with all forex trading, it is important to monitor market conditions closely and be prepared for volatility and changes in market dynamics.