A CRITICAL naval flashpoint could decide Ukraine’s fate – with Vladimir Putin and Kyiv’s rapidly evolving tactics constantly turning the tides of the war.
In the latest episode of The Sun’s Battle Plans Exposed, former intelligence officer Philip Ingram takes a deep dive into Russia‘s failing sea power – and analyses Ukraine‘s tech-savvy strategies.
Ingram explains the ‘cat and mouse’ battle unfolding in the Black Sea
The episode shows Kyiv’s drone navy at work, hunting Putin’s warships in open water and forcing Russia’s fleet into humiliating retreats
Map shows Russia’s occupied territories in red, Crimea in purple and the key ports – from Odesa to Sevastopol – now at the heart of the naval war
East2WestFootage showed the moment a Russian marine drone struck one of Ukraine’s vessels as part of the ‘cat and mouse’ battle for sea access[/caption]
Ex-Nato planner Ingram highlights why the back-and-forth battle over the hotly contested Black Sea is such a crucial aspect of the war.
Although Russia occupies around two-thirds of Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, Kyiv has shown time and time again its resilience in maintaining naval presence.
Watch the latest episode on The Sun’s YouTube channel here…
For Kyiv the Black Sea is “a vital artery” for its export economy, while Moscow sees the naval territory as a launchpad to project power in the Mediterranean, Ingram explains.
“Control of the Black Sea means control of critical trade and energy corridors,” he says.
The “cat and mouse” fight has seen battles over Zmiinyi Island, also known as Snake Island, a tiny outpost off of Ukraine’s southwest coast, and drone strikes on key warships.
“It is a high stakes chess match and every move is critical,” Ingram adds.
The military analyst also explains how Russia’s Black Sea fleet has had to effectively retreat from its main port in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, due to relentless Ukrainian drone attacks.
Putin has been forced to relocate his prized fleet to the Russian port of Novorossiysk, and some areas in Russia-occupied Georgia.
Ingram says: “Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet had about 74 warships which included surface combatants and submarines.
“By March 2024, reports suggested that the fleet had become functionally inactive due to heavy losses of vessels.”
To add insult to injury, Putin’s pride of the Russian Navy, the Moskva, was also downed by Ukraine’s famed Neptune missiles – outlined by Ingram as a “turning point”.
But Russia has been able to learn from this and has since hit back – using a sea drone for the first time.
Moscow managed to sink the Simferopol reconnaissance ship last month, killing two on board in the Danube Delta, near Ukraine’s southwest coast.
Highlighting the strike as a stark reminder of the war’s rapidly changing nature, Ingram says: “This war is a constantly evolving game of cat and mouse, with both sides learning and adapting their battle plans at lightning speed.”
Russia had one of its warships damaged in a Ukrainian attack on a Black Sea port in 2023
Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence used a drone to target and hit a Russian Buyan-M warship armed with deadly Kalibr cruise missiles in the Sea of Azov
Ukraine missiles destroying the Askold warship in Kerch, Crimea
Ingram also looks at how Ukraine’s homegrown arsenal is evolving at breakneck speed.
The Neptune missile has been reborn in an extended-range land-attack variant.
Capable of striking targets up to 1,000km inside Russia, it can rip into command posts and ammo depots deep behind enemy lines.
The Flamingo has also been unveiled – a cruise missile shrouded in secrecy until recently.
Boasting a staggering claimed range of 3,000km and a heavy warhead, it has already surfaced in combat footage.
If its reach is proven, Ingram says, the Flamingo could be Kyiv’s most significant homegrown weapon of the war – and unlike Western kit, it is fully under Ukraine’s control.
But the real revolution is happening on the water, Ingram highlights.
Ukraine’s 180ft Simferopol patrol and reconnaissance ship was struck by a sea droneEast2West
Ukraine’s secret service SBU released unseen footage of its special forces storming Snake Island
The geopolitics expert explains how Kyiv has built a navy not from steel hulls but from silicon chips and explosive payloads.
The Sea Baby, a heavyweight drone boat, can haul an 850kg warhead strong enough to cripple bridges and smash warships in harbour.
Its smaller, faster sibling, the Magura V5, is the Black Sea’s silent assassin — a sea-skimming hunter designed to overwhelm Russian vessels in swarms.
Together, these drones have “sunk or damaged over a third of Putin’s fleet,” forcing his warships to hide in distant ports that once bristled with confidence.
The episode also takes a look at why the fight for the sea matters so much, while also giving insight into the battle for the skies.
Calling the battle for the sea a “shadow war and innovation and brutal retaliation”, Ingram emphasises that its outcome could decide the fate of Ukraine.
Losing control of the Black Sea would give Russia “total control over the unoccupied coastline areas”.
And he warned that Ukraine losing access to the Sea would significantly hinder their reconnaissance operations – hampering their effort to force Russia out.
If Putin wins the Ukraine war, experts have long warned it will have dire consequences for the rest of Europe and the West – with Vlad emboldened to continue his deranged dream of a new Russian empire.
The episode shows the Flamingo in action – Kyiv’s most powerful homegrown missile yet, threatening Putin’s strongholds far beyond the frontline
Ukrainian drones zero in on a Russian patrol boat in the Black Sea – a precision strike that left the vessel in flames and its crew wiped out
The latest episode comes after Poland called on Nato to trigger Article 4 – one below the threshold of war – in response to Russia’s “deliberate” overnight drone onslaught.
And after the Ukrainians once again struck a Russian spy ship in the Black Sea.
Donald Trump and European nations were urged to rise to Putin’s test and punish him, after Nato shot down Russian drones over Poland’s airspace.
Poland’s Prime Minster Donald Tusk said 19 Russian drones brazenly flew across the border amid an onslaught against western Ukraine.
He said that around four were shot down Nato fighter jets – understood to be from Poland, Italy, the Netherland the US – and officials later said seven had been found on the ground.
It was the first time since the outbreak of war that Nato has directly clashed with Russia – and the aggression is being taken as a test of the West’s resolve.
Nato jets have been scrambled multiple times in response to Russian drone attacks on Ukraine – but have never before engaged them.
EPAPolish Army and emergency services inspect the site after a Russian drone damaged the roof of a residential building in Wyryki[/caption]
One of the drones said to have crashed in Poland