Randall Denley: Bonnie Crombie’s dismal little victory

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New Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie is supposed to be the saviour of her party, the candidate endorsed by what’s left of the party establishment, the political all-star with name recognition and electability. Her campaign was so sure that she’d blow away her three bright, but little known, opponents that they predicted a first ballot victory.

In the end, the expected tidal wave of support was little more than a ripple. It took three ballots before Crombie was able to eke out a narrow win Saturday over MP Nate Erskine-Smith, taking 53.4 per cent of the vote.

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Even worse, the turnout for the leadership vote was dismal. Crombie and the other leadership contenders have been crisscrossing the province since the spring, selling memberships and trying to stoke enthusiasm. While 103,206 people hold Liberal memberships, only 22,827 thought it worth their while to cast a ballot in the leadership contest. Crombie got vastly more support when she won the Mississauga mayoralty in 2022, receiving more than 83,000 votes.

The low turnout is embarrassing for the Liberals, who had boasted about the big increase in membership numbers. In the last two leadership contests, the party had only 44,000 and 38,000 members.

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Despite the lack of interest from her own members, Crombie stuck to her favourite catchphrase in her victory speech. “Being an Ontario Liberal is back.” Well, sort of.

Crombie describes herself as a retail politician, and it seems to be her strength. The 63-year-old is energetic and upbeat. The suburban mother of three will be relatable for a lot of voters. Her life story is reasonably compelling. Crombie came from a low-income background, got a good education, held a variety of business jobs, and has had a successful career in politics as an MP and Mississauga mayor. She’s clearly a striver with a lot of drive.

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Unfortunately, what this retail politician is selling is a lot less clear. Crombie’s leadership platform, now scrubbed from her website, was a virtual catalogue, offering 256 policies under 13 broad headings. The only thing she failed to offer is even a cursory idea of how a Crombie government might pay for all her plans.

Perhaps the approach was just a leadership candidate’s attempt to offer something to the maximum number of party members, but it suggests a person whose strength is neither clarity nor priority setting.

Comments Crombie made early in her campaign also demonstrated confusion about what she stands for. In interviews, she said the Liberals had veered too far left, and described herself as “a centrist, even right-of-centre, with a strong business background.” Crombie suggested that former premier Kathleen Wynne had spent too much on child care and health care. Crombie also said on the day she announced her candidacy that she’d be open to swapping out some parcels of Greenbelt land.

Crombie ultimately retracted her centre-right and Greenbelt comments, but she was correct on both points. Not every square inch of the Greenbelt should be sacrosanct, and her party won’t regain power by trying to compete with the NDP and the Greens on the left. Unfortunately, the retractions leave the impression that Crombie is the kind of leader who thinks one thing and says the opposite.

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As leader, Crombie faces four significant challenges. The first is creating a much clearer focus on what she and her party are all about. What two or three issue will define them and attract voters? Crombie will have to do this while learning the facts of provincial politics. For example, her suggestion that Wynne spent too much on health care is nonsense. Under-spending on hospitals, doctors, nurses and long-term care undermined the province’s health system and will take years to fix.

Defining what drives her and her party will be critical to the next two challenges, raising money and attracting quality candidates. With the next election more than two years away, Crombie has time to accomplish those goals, but the work must start immediately,

Finally, Crombie will have to decide what to do about finding a seat in the legislature. Saturday, she suggested that she might run in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, when a byelection is called to replace former labour minister Monte McNaughton. That would be a risky move. The PCs won that seat with nearly 60 per cent of the vote and the Liberals got less than 10 per cent.

As the leader of a nine-MPP party, Crombie’s path to power will be long and difficult, but the new leader has abundant energy and enthusiasm. She’s going to need it.

Randall Denley is an Ottawa journalist, author and former Ontario PC candidate. Contact him at randalldenley1@gmail.com

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