Overachieving/underachieving: Which NBA teams are surprising us, for better and for worse?

In the NBA, each new season brings a new set of surprises. Teams that were expected to flounder instead come out of the gate looking poised and promising, while teams that were expected to compete at a high level instead look lost and uninspired. Who’s overachieving, and who’s underachieving? Here are three examples of each. (Stats through Dec. 4.)

Overachievers

Minnesota Timberwolves: This team looks the part of the high-powered defensive terror we thought it could be prior to last season — it just took a year for everything to mesh. Minnesota is 15-4 with the league’s best defensive rating (106.7), and on the other end, Anthony Edwards and a rejuvenated Karl-Anthony Towns provide enough spark to keep defenses on their toes. This is a very good team. Will it keep up the 60-plus-win pace it’s currently playing at? Probably not — that’s really hard to do. Still, this team has the depth and balance for a conference finals run.

Orlando Magic: In every season since 2010-11, the Magic have won between 20 and 42 games, acting as the NBA’s steadfast beacon of forgettability. Not anymore! Orlando is 14-6 and only getting stronger as the season progresses. Paolo Banchero is apparently now an elite three-point shooter (44.3%), Franz Wagner is quickly finding his form (three games of 30+ points in the past 10 days) and Cole Anthony could make a run at Sixth Man of the Year. Buy Magic stock now. They’re here to stay.

Indiana Pacers: This Pacers team has its sights set on more than being just “not bad.” Now 11-8 and in the in-season tournament semifinals, Indiana’s outrageous offensive output has taken the league by storm. Those gaudy offensive stats might come back down to earth a bit as the season wears on, but if nothing else, the Pacers have a top-tier cornerstone to build around in Tyrese Haliburton. That, plus a deep IST tournament run, already signifies a more successful season than expected in Indy.

Underachievers

Golden State Warriors: It had to end eventually, right? Golden State’s dynasty might be coming to a rather anticlimactic end. Steph Curry is still the league’s most extraordinary shooter (43.1% on 11.7 attempts per game), but Klay Thompson has been mediocre, Andrew Wiggins can’t find any type of rhythm, Draymond Green apparently loves to be ejected or suspended, and the bench — where Golden State seems to always find hidden gems — has, for the most part, just kind of been a bench. Golden State will make a run at some point, but the days of dominance in the Bay might be behind us — for real this time.

Atlanta Hawks: Atlanta has the third-best offense in basketball but is still just 9-10 because the Hawks, simply, don’t defend anyone. Dejounte Murray has been good and Jalen Johnson looked great before his injury, but what is the ceiling of this Hawks team? Even when everything is working as well as it can, there appears to be a clear limit on this team’s capabilities. The Hawks are probably better than the 9-10 record suggests, but by how much?

Memphis Grizzlies: Maybe it’s not fair to put Memphis on this list because its 5-14 start can directly be attributed to one thing: no Ja Morant. However, the Grizzlies are still 5-14 and need to dig deep for a few more wins before Morant returns if they want to give themselves a chance at a late-season run. With Morant, Memphis should still be very good… the Grizz just have to hope that when he does return, they’re not already too far behind the eight-ball to make up ground in the West.