AFCON gives Liverpool a glimpse of potential Mohamad Salah-less future as possible summer Saudi move looms

As a parting gift, Liverpool fans could scarcely have asked for more from Mohamed Salah before he left in pursuit of one of the few major crowns left missing for him, the Africa Cup of Nations. Egypt’s presence among the favorites might be solely down to having one of the best footballers on the planet in their ranks. Even a penalty miss in Monday’s 4-2 win over Newcastle only serves to enhance the legend of what might be the first performance of Salah’s final year as a Liverpool player.

There is, however, a long way to go between now and next summer when Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) are expected to put together another package to test the resolve of Liverpool and Salah to stay together. Between now and then Jurgen Klopp must navigate an altogether briefer period without his superstar. That is an absence that will be keenly felt even in an attack capable of putting up seven expected goals (xG) as they did against Newcastle.

At 31, Salah is as good as ever, a fact that makes it altogether easier for Liverpool to retroactively justify their decision to reject $164 million for him from Al-Ittihad on deadline day in August. As he enters what most might have assumed was his post-prime 30s, Salah is still as dangerous a scorer as he was in 2022-23, averaging more goals per 90 minutes while pushing the non-penalty xG up by a slight margin for 0.52 to 0.51. That would be fairly unremarkable if it hadn’t also come as Salah hits greater creative heights than ever before.

Klopp’s new system, which requires Trent Alexander-Arnold to invert on the right rather than overlap, tends to position Salah somewhat wider and deeper with Dominik Szoboszlai often, but not exclusively, filling the half space across from the center forward that the Egyptian would often drift into. For that reason Salah is seeing fewer touches in the box, but is compensating for that with far more creativity. His expected assists (xA) per 90 is now at 0.3, a mark bettered by just seven players, none of whom are the once and future king of this particular metric, Alexander-Arnold. In the three Premier League seasons prior to this he had been at 0.21, 0.24 and 0.19. That is an almighty leap up for a man who would be entitled to be on the career downslope.

Indeed, there is an argument that Salah is somehow even more important to “Liverpool 2.0” than the previous iteration. He leads Liverpool not just in the metrics you’d expect — shots, xG, goals — but also in xA, assists, final third touches and passes. Only Szoboszlai betters him in final third carries, only Alexander-Arnold in possessions where he is the last player on the ball.

Taking their best player out of the equation constitutes quite the headache for Liverpool. That would be all the more deeply felt if Egypt were to make a run to the final in Abidjan on February 11. It would mean more Salah for all of the EFL Cup semifinal against Fulham and, perhaps more crucially, Premier League meetings with Chelsea and Arsenal. Even a quarterfinal run would make him a doubt for both matches. The best case scenario for the Reds — and worst for their star player — sees his tournament end at the group stage on January 23, comfortably enough time to be back for the big top flight games.

It is not as if Liverpool are short on attackers without Salah though. Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota, Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo is over $250 million worth of talent, though none have quite established themselves as the Robin to Salah’s Batman in the same way that Sadio Mane was, though in time one of them probably will be. For the next month or so, however, someone is going to have to don the cowl.

For his part, Salah is backing those left behind to pick up the slack. “Without me, I’m sure the players will manage to win games,” he said on Monday. “We have fantastic players, really good quality, they just need to keep the pressure away and just play their football. We have players who can play in my position, they can do what I am doing.”

Salah might say that, but it is hard to be sure. He so rarely misses a game — starting the most Premier League games of any outfielder since the start of the 2020-21 season — that it is not obviously apparent who will slot in on the right flank. Harvey Elliot is one option but all of the senior options above have spent more time, before and after Liverpool, on the left. This team has, it should be noted, coped quite admirably without their main man before. Two years ago they went unbeaten in all competitions, reaching the final of the EFL Cup and fifth round of the FA Cup before Salah returned, following the heartbreak of a penalty shootout defeat in the AFCON final.

That Liverpool have coped without their star player before is no guarantee they will do so again. However, they would be well advised to familiarize themselves with a team that doesn’t include Salah’s gaudy levels of production. If nothing else, the 31-year-old can’t keep this up forever, even the very best hit a wall at some stage.

Then there is the looming interest from Saudi Arabia. That is not expected to materialize this month, clubs in the Pro League have filled their allowance of eight international players and the PIF-owned clubs who could afford to pay Salah’s wages would not find it easy to manufacture a squad space. Come the summer, however, the move will be revived. CBS Sports sources say that PIF believe they found a package of personal terms amenable to Salah, who ultimately was not willing to push for a move in August that would have left Liverpool in an almighty lurch with a few hours left in the window.

PIF are not expected to make as generous an offer in 2024 as the $164 million they did last summer. After all, Salah will be out of contract 12 months later. Liverpool would still be expected to bank what would constitute a major fee for a player who will be 32 this summer; he was third on Al-Hilal’s wish list last summer (having missed their first choice in Lionel Messi, they still got Neymar) and the Pro League leaders remain the leading Saudi contender for his signature, according to CBS Sports sources.

Between now and then there is plenty left for Salah to achieve and given his form it is eminently plausible that the first half of 2024 could bring both a first continental crown and yet more major silverware for Liverpool. That would be quite the way in which to depart from the English game. If his performance on Monday night showed anything, Salah knows exactly how to leave the crowd wanting more.