#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 04.14 – 04.19 for CME_MINI:ES1! by HollowMn

Last Week :
Last week market opened around VAL of the range and we knew we had supply and strong sellers inside the ranges Value in and above previous gap which we filled. Market was able to balance inside VAL on Monday around Key Support of 49.75 – 44.75 and top of VAL area but Tuesday we started seeing more signs of weakness with flushes from Value into the Edge. Flushes looked strong but every one has been bought up which looked more like shorts were covering from above for profit not trapped shorts from below as we would drop pause to consolidate or cover and then once selling stopped it would rotate back to Supply. Thursdays rotation made another push for VAL but tagged and failed right under which allowed Globex to consolidate confirming that area as now Resistance and give another move back to the Edge.
If the market wasn’t weak that day then we should have balance around the Edge but instead we got a break under, retest from below and this time a full continuation through the 5204.25 – 5154.25 Range.

This week :

This week is hitting us with Supply above and news of uncertainty, what can we see going forward ?

Friday we did a look below 5159.25 – 54.25 Key Support for this VAH area and came back in but for now didn’t accept back inside it or tried to push through it. Question going into this week is will we have enough buying here for the market to try and hold around this 5204 – 5154 Range or will more weakness come in to send us under 5159.25 – 54.25 Support through the Mean towards VAL ? We now have volume trapped in above HTF Edge and we have broke under and accept in 5227 – 5066.50 HTF Range, holding under the upper Edge and failure to accept in or over VAH can bring in more weakness and continuation lower towards VAL and depending how much volume we will be hit with this would be the areas to watch if we either see holds around/under VAL for balancing action inside this HTF ranges Value or if stronger volume comes in or we build up enough Supply there to continue flushing towards the lower Edge where we have more pinata stops.

For upside or to see stability again we need to hold above 5159.25 – 54.25 and 5174.25 – 70s areas and start balancing in this 5204 – 5154 range for clean up which could take time before we can think of moves over or inside the Upper Edge again.

Levels to Watch : Current Range 5204.25 – 5154.25

Key Resistance 5204.25 – 5199.75 // 5188.25 – 84.50 // 5174.25 – 70.50 // Key Support 5159.25 – 54.25

Holding under 74-70 Would weakness and IF accept under Key Support can see continuation through lower Range of 5159.25 – 5107.50 Levels to watch there are 5144 – 40.25 // 5129 – 25 Key Support 5112.50 – 07.50

Depending on how things get and how much volume we have to come out this week IF VAL at 5100s goes then we could see a push for lower Edge to fill the stops which are down there.

IF we do hold current Key Support we will look to balance in this 5204 – 5154 range and for any upside back inside we would need to accept back over 5204.25 – 07.50 area.