Canada’s 2024 wildfire season expected to be worse than last year’s

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Last year’s wildfire season broke records for its intensity and resulted in Canada’s first-ever evacuation of an entire capital city — Yellowknife. Smoke from the fires also impacted air quality not only nationally, but in the United States as well. Coming out of an intense season that garnered internal attention, federal officials are warning Canadians to prepare for another record-breaking year.

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Due to a mild winter and warmer year, this wildfire season is looking to be worse, not better, than the last. Here’s what to expect for the spring and summer, what to know about the fires, and how officials are preparing for what’s to come.

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What can we expect for the 2024 wildfire season?

“The temperature trends are very concerning. With the heat and dryness across the country we can expect that the wildfire season will start sooner and end later and potentially be more explosive,” said Minister of Emergency Preparedness Harjit Sajjan, at an April 10 technical briefing.

Early spring forecasts predict an above normal fire risk for western Canada, eastern Ontario, and southern Quebec in April. In May, the Prairies, eastern and southern British Columbia, northern Ontario, and western Quebec will be affected. Looking into the summer, long-range fire forecasts are unclear, as forecasting the precipitation that affects these conditions is difficult.

Why could this be a bad year for wildfires?

The warm fall and winter conditions throughout the country, as well as droughts, and minimal snowfall are all factors that contribute to a more intense fire season. Next to no snowfall from December to February in essential areas like southern B.C. and the Prairies impacted the moisture levels of the soil, and also increased the fire risk.

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Spring and summer weather conditions also affect the wildfire season risk. The federal government said these conditions are set to be impacted by both the ongoing effects of climate change and it being an El Niño weather pattern year, meaning weather conditions are warmer than average.

How bad was last year’s wildfire season?

“Last year was Canada’s most destructive wildfire season in recorded history. The scale of the fires, global smoke effects, the length of the season, and the national impacts, all contributed to the worst season that Canadians have ever seen,” said Sajjan.

There were 6,623 fires last year, and 15 million hectares were burned. This was seven times the yearly average over the last ten years. Over 327 megatons of carbon was released from the burning of the wildfires, with the previous record being 138 megatons in 2014. There were eight firefighter deaths and 230,000 evacuations.

Wildfire smoke was seen in parts of the United States, and Canada’s wildfire crisis garnered international support and attention.

How are officials preparing for the 2024 wildfire season?

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Public Safety Canada is collaborating with organizations to develop a readiness pilot within the humanitarian workforce program. “That will make it easier for them to deploy in emergencies and take some of the pressure off our Canadian Armed Forces,” said Sajjan.

At the April 10 briefing, plans for developing early notification systems for air quality and preparation measures were also referenced.

A training fund with a commitment to train 1,000 new firefighters, as well as an equipment fund have been launched by the federal government.

Additional funds of up to $285 million over five years will be used to help communities better handle wildfires.

When will wildfire season start?

The wildfire season typically runs from April to October. However, Alberta declared an early start to their wildfire season at the end of February, and has 52 active wildfires as of April 16. Ontario declared the start of fire season on April 1. British Columbia has 100 wildfires burning, with 90 active holdover fires from last year, according to BC Wildfire Service. Holdover fires — also known as “zombie fires” — are blazes that continue to burn under snow during the winter and resurface in the spring.

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Who is most at risk?

Indigenous communities are most at risk during wildfire season. Last year 161 fires burned on or near First Nations communities. 93 evacuations occurred in 82 First Nations communities, meaning several communities had to evacuate multiple times.

Additional funding to support wildfire response and prevention for First Nations communities is planned, and emergency management coordinator positions have been developed to help communities in Alberta.

After a full city evacuation last summer, Yellowknife officials are making preparations to help locals prepare for the upcoming wildfire season. This includes updating the municipality’s wildfire preparation plans and evacuation preparedness education for residents.

What resources are available?

There are a few recommended actions individuals can take to stay safe in wildfire season. These include preparing an emergency fire plan and creating an emergency kit, removing fire hazards in the home, taking preventative smaller actions such as planting wildfire resistant vegetation, staying up to date on local media and weather advisories, and ensuring you don’t accidently ignite a fire.

Some additional resources and education for wildfire preparation are: The federal government’s wildfires webpage, which consolidates resources, policies and initiatives. Also Fire Smart Canada has advice for homeowners for wildfire protection, resources and training.

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