Tesla Is Delivering The New Model 3 In China. Will It Propel The EV Giant To A Record Q4?

Tesla (TSLA) insurance registrations in China last week increased as the global EV giant began to deliver its revamped Model 3. However, registrations in China are well below Q3 levels. Still, Tesla targets a record Q4 to reach its 2023 goal of 1.8 million vehicle deliveries. Tesla stock edged lower Tuesday.

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Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 10,800 vehicles for the week ending Oct. 29, up more than 33% vs. 8,100 the week prior, as the new Model 3 began to be shipped to customers on Oct. 26, according to new data compiled by CnEVPost.

Tesla unveiled its new Model 3 in China on Sept. 1 with official sales beginning on Oct. 19. The global EV giant started delivering the Model 3 on Oct. 26. This means the latest insurance registrations only capture three days of possible Model 3 deliveries. Tesla also launched a slightly updated Model Y earlier this month.

Four-weeks into Q4, Tesla China insurance registrations, a rough gauge for vehicle deliveries, totaled 28,800, down around 22% compared to the same time in the third quarter. This comes as Tesla aims for record-setting deliveries in Q4 to reach its target of 1.8 million vehicle delivered in 2023.

Tesla stock edged down 0.8% Tuesday during premarket action. On Monday, TSLA fell 4.8% to 197.36.

Through the end of Q3, Tesla delivered about 1.3 million vehicles, meaning the company needs to deliver 480,000 in Q4. That’s 3% more than its record 466,000 deliveries in the second quarter. Tesla reiterated its 1.8 million vehicle delivery goal in its third-quarter earnings.

However, since Oct. 18, analyst projections have dropped. Wall Street consensus has Tesla vehicle deliveries in 2023 totaling 1.79 million, just below that 1.8 million target, according to FactSet. Analysts’ average 2023 EPS estimate has also fallen 5% since Q3 earnings.

Wall Street is also predicting 2024 earnings will now undercut 2022, with analysts expecting EPS of $3.94 — down 12% vs. the $4.50 view before Q3 earnings.

Tesla Stock Falls After Third-Quarter Earnings

TSLA has dropped around 19% since it reported worse-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue on Oct. 18. Chief Executive Elon Musk on the earnings call preached caution, offering investors warnings about the upcoming Cybertruck and the broader economy. The following day, Tesla stock fell 9.3%.

Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla stock has advanced around 60%, outperforming the broader S&P 500 index. Meanwhile, Tesla is due to begin the preliminary Cybertruck deliveries on Nov. 30.

TSLA has declined in six of the last nine sessions and is currently just below its 200-day moving average.

Meanwhile, with the United Auto Workers (UAW) and General Motors (GM) reaching a tentative labor agreement Monday, ending the six week auto strike, Bloomberg reports the union has its eyes once more on Tesla.

Tesla’s 20,000-worker plant in Fremont, California, currently has a UAW organizing committee talking to employees about unionizing, according to Bloomberg. The UAW has targeted non-union shop Tesla in the past.

Tesla stock ranks sixth in the 35-stock IBD automaker industry group. The S&P 500 component has a 77 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Tesla stock also has a 62 Relative Strength Rating and a 89 EPS Rating.

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