Can Kirk Cousins lead the Atlanta Falcons to a statement win over the Kansas City Chiefs? Will the New Orleans Saints continue their lightning start to the season? We look ahead to Week Three of the season…
Editor’s note…
The NFL season is a long, winding war of attrition, but it is Week Three and already the Dallas Cowboys and their championship credentials are under the microscope after they were dismantled by the New Orleans Saints. Jerry Jones made CeeDee Lamb the second-highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history, made Dak Prescott the highest-paid player of all time and entered the season having decided to stick with head coach Mike McCarthy despite the team’s shock playoff exit to the Green Bay Packers; it makes for overwhelming pressure that only continues to mount on a team desperate to end its oft-reminded Super Bowl drought.
A game of the season contender beckons against Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, who face scrutiny of their own after failing to capitalise on their regular-season supremacy in 2023 and having started the new campaign winless through two weeks. Does anybody want to stop Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs? The only man that currently looks capable of as much is playing in Buffalo; on Sunday, Lamar and Dak will seek to remind that they too can be in that discussion.
But while the two star quarterbacks will take the headlines, it is the two defensive succession plans that may prove defining.
To assess Baltimore’s early struggles is to cast an eye on the early influence of Mike Macdonald as head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, who poached the defensive mastermind from the Ravens as their replacement for Pete Carroll on the back of last season. A staple of any successful defense in modern football is the ability to create pressure from four-man fronts, with Macdonald’s Seahawks defense currently ranked ninth in pressure rate in the NFL while blitzing at just the 21st highest rate.
Seattle are currently ranked seventh in defensive EPA/play (an advanced metric for down-by-down efficiency), sixth in yards allowed, third in passing, 23rd in rushing and 15th in scoring. Baltimore’s defense has meanwhile suffered thus far under Zachary Orr, ranking 25th in EPA/play and 32nd in passing yards allowed per game while pressuring at the 10th-lowest rate in the league, their secondary in particular proving cause for concern.
Dallas are also adjusting to a period of change after losing defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to the Washington Commanders in the offseason, with Mike Zimmer arriving as his replacement. The Cowboys take on a Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry-led ground attack having just been manhandled by Alvin Kamara and the Saints, their defense currently ranking 26th against the run after two games.
Elsewhere Kirk Cousins is riding the momentum of a rare primetime victory as he looks to inspire the Atlanta Falcons and their star-studded cast of weapons to a message-sending win over the threepeat-chasing Chiefs. In a week that saw Bryce Young moved to the bench, fellow No 1 pick quarterback Caleb Williams continues his bid to settle into the NFL after a bumpy introduction with the Chicago Bears, while Sam Darnold resumes his redemption story against CJ Stroud’s contender-looking Houston Texans and Andrew Thomas meets Myles Garrett in one of the week’s fascinating one-on-one match-ups.
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Neil Reynolds and Phoebe Schecter look ahead to the NFL’s Week Three fixtures and make their predictions…
Around the league
The Miami Dolphins officially placed quarterback Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve following his concussion in last Thursday’s loss to the Buffalo Bills; the team meanwhile signed Tyler Huntley off the Baltimore Ravens’ practice squad.
Former No 1 Draft pick Bryce Young was benched by the Carolina Panthers, with veteran Andy Dalton taking over as starter following the team’s 0-2 start to the season.
The Kansas City Chiefs placed running back Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve, with a fractured fibula expected to keep him out for six-to-eight weeks; the Chiefs have since re-signed former Browns running back Kareem Hunt, who was released by Kansas City after a video emerged of him pushing a woman to the ground in 2018.
Packers quarterback Jordan Love returned to practice this week after suffering an MCL sprain against the Eagles in Week One.
Rams head coach Seam McVay admitted star wide receiver Cooper Kupp will miss an ‘extended’ period of time following the ankle injury he suffered against the Cardinals in Week Two.
What to watch in Week Three
Sunday, 6pm – Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints: So long has Philadelphia’s defensive front been a leading strength of its trench supremacy, but through two weeks there are glaring question marks over Vic Fangio’s pass rush. The Eagles have managed just three sacks so far in 2024 (tied second-fewest in the league) while ranking 24th in pressure rate; big-money offseason addition Bryce Huff has been a no-show, second-year edge rusher Nolan Smith is being thrown around by running backs and tight ends, and there is a case that 36-year-old Brandon Graham remains the team’s best pass rusher. What’s more, the Eagles are ranked worst in the league against the run while allowing 6.4 yards per carry. This weekend they run into the league’s most prolific offense, with Derek Carr and the Saints have dropped 91 points on their opponents over the first two weeks. Klint Kubiak just nullified the Dallas Cowboys defense in ruthless fashion, with Alvin Kamara notching four touchdowns while spearheading the league’s third-ranked rushing attack.
Sunday, 9.25pm – Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys: It is a ‘prove it’ game for the Ravens and Cowboys, Baltimore looking to avoid going 0-3 following their loss to the Raiders and the Cowboys nursing the wounds of their heavy defeat to the Saints. Dallas were bullied on the ground by Klint Kubiak’s rushing attack, suffering against heavier sets against base personnel as New Orleans flourished through play-action and screen plays. Micah Parsons was expertly neutralised, while Alvin Kamara ran all over Mike Zimmer’s defense to expose major flaws to the interior of his front. Now they are tasked with thwarting one of the league’s most dynamic ground tandems in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, the full potency of which is yet to come to fruition over the opening two weeks. The Cowboys are ranked last in the league in rush EPA, while the Ravens offense currently ranks third in rush EPA. There’s your key duel.
Sunday Night Football, 1.20am – Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons: Ground control has become a staple of Andy Reid’s Chiefs offense in recent years, from his masterful screen designs to a stout interior blocking scheme, behind which Isiah Pacheco has emerged as an integral complement to Patrick Mahomes and the passing game. With Pacheco heading to injured reserve, undrafted rookie Carson Steele is expected to inherit an increased workload alongside veteran Samaje Perine and newly-returned Kareem Hunt. Among the wrinkles to monitor will be Reid’s unicorn use of linebacker Leo Chenal, who was employed as a blocking fullback at times during last weekend’s win over the Cincinnati Bengals.
For Kirk Cousins, it beckons as the latest acid test for his Atlanta Falcons as they seek some momentum in the wake of their win over the Eagles on Monday night. His game-winning drive underlined exactly why the Falcons moved to sign him in the offseason as they seek a proven veteran to pilot an offense brimming with talent, with Cousins still evidently getting up to speed with his receiving core. Darnell Mooney enjoyed his arrival game, Bijan Robinson is just warming up and Cousins’ rapport with Drake London will only continue to grow.
Monday Night Football, 12.30am – Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills: Doug Pederson, Press Taylor and the Jaguars offense have problems. A usually unflappable Trevor Lawrence looked as frustrated as he ever has since entering the NFL Sunday as his Jags attack hobbled to an 18-13 defeat to the Cleveland Browns, during which their lack of identity on offense grew in concern. Lawrence is missing throws and making poor decisions, while pass protection issues are negating the prospective impact of downfield routes. The Jags cannot get the ball to their most trusted receiver Christian Kirk, are seemingly underusing impressive rookie Brian Thomas Jr and are 29th in rush EPA as they struggle to establish a running game.
Buffalo had faced their own questions on offense following the departure of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Believe it or not, having a field-flipping bulldozer like Josh Allen at quarterback keeps you pretty handy. But the Bills have also benefited from the ascending influence of James Cook, who has 198 yards and three touchdowns from scrimmage so far this season. Khalil Shakir is meanwhile trending upwards as one of Allen’s most trustworthy targets as he takes on an increased target share in his third season.
Monday Night Football, 1.15am – Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow’s Bengals are famously slow starters, but there have been some minor signs of evolution to Zac Taylor’s offense. Among those is the heavier use of pre-snap motion seen during the loss to the Chiefs, as well as a greater emphasis on tight end use – as much amounting to Mike Gesicki’s seven catches for 91 yards in Week Two. Taylor, perhaps more importantly, is turning to tight ends and motion in 12 personnel as a means of selling the run more creatively in order to shift from the previous under-center tells and buy Burrow more time in the pocket to make use of his receiving talent. Monday night’s clash will also serve up another opportunity to monitor the development of quarterback Jayden Daniels, who, without being spectacular, has out-performed his fellow rookie play-callers so far in 2024.
Who said what?
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce speaking on his New Heights podcast: “We’ve got to play better as an offense. The defense is playing their asses off – I put that on me. I think it starts with the leaders, I think it starts with making sure you go in with the right mentality. I didn’t play my best. It spreads if you don’t fix it and I’ve got to get that thing fixed.”
Texans quarterback CJ Stroud on Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams: “I want him to do amazing in this league. I think he will. I think that he’ll get his groove and once you get your rhythm, I didn’t get my rhythm until like Week Three, Week Four. So, I can see his game picking up from here.”
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield on Bryce Young being benched by the Panthers: “I’m sitting here right now in a way better fit than the other places I’ve been. That’s not to put other teams down, but it’s a matter of the pieces around you, the coaches. For Bryce, a guy that – I can relate to this – finding that belief within yourself again. He’ll get it. His story is far, far from finished.”
Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce on Tua Tagovailoa following his latest concussion setback: “I’ll be honest, I’d tell him to retire. It’s not worth it. Playing the game, I haven’t witnessed anything like what’s happened to him three times. Scary – you could see right away, the players’ faces on the field. You could see the sense of urgency from everybody to get Tua help. I just think at some point – he’s going to live longer than he’s going to play football. Take care of your family.”
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence: “We suck right now. We know we’ve got a good group, we’ve got good players, and we can be a really good offense, but clearly we’re not. Everybody has to take accountability, look in the mirror and fix it. I’ve got to play better. I’m the leader of this offense. It’s on me.”
The stats
Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is 2.5 sacks away in Sunday’s meeting with the Cardinals from having 13 sacks in five games, which would represent a new NFL record
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams enters Week Three with the worst completion percentage against the blitz so far in the 2024 season
Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has not thrown an interception in seven successive starts, marking the longest active streak among starting quarterbacks
The Saints offense have used motion on 88 of 115 offensive snaps (76.5 per cent) in 2024, the 10th-highest rate in the league; last season they used motion at the sixth-lowest rate
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh are the only head coaches since 1980 to coach at least four seasons without posting a losing record
Mike Evans leads the NFL with 15 receiving touchdowns since Baker Mayfield joined the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023
Raiders tight end Brock Bowers’ 15 catches and 156 receiving yards are the most by a rookie tight end through his first two games in the common draft era (since 1967)
Bryce Young’s 2-16 record is the worst through 18 starts by a quarterback drafted No 1 overall in the common draft era (since 1967)
Essential reading
‘Not Like Us’… Kendrick, Klint & the NFL’s surprise Saints
Derek Carr is the most dangerous quarterback in football, Klint Kubiak is the most destructive offensive architect in the league, Dennis Allen is dropping Kendrick Lamar references into locker room speeches and suddenly the NFL is scatting to the tune of jazzy New Orleans Saints supremacy.
Who had that down on their Week Two bingo card? Yeah, right. How long will it last? Don’t answer that, the NFL wants you to fall into its trap.
Carr, the Saints and their scintillating offense have emerged as one of the stories of the NFL across the first fortnight of the 2024 campaign, torching a sorry Carolina Panthers team – the nature of whom’s dire situation made for ‘pinch of salt’ perceptions – before dismantling the Dallas Cowboys to heap the pressure on Mike McCarthy, Dak Prescott – now the highest-paid player in history – and Jerry Jones’ Super Bowl-desperate minions.
Watch the Philadelphia Eagles at the New Orleans Saints from 6pm Sunday, live on Sky Sports NFL, followed by the Baltimore Ravens at the Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs at the Atlanta Falcons, as well as a Monday Night Football double-header; Also stream with NOW.
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