BITCOIN Will a BTC ETF mirror Gold’s post approval +350% rise? for FX_IDC:XAUUSD by TradingShot

** Are Bitcoin and Gold comparable? **

So, do we have any historic framework to relate to and work on? Possibly. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been dubbed as the digital Gold due to its store of value (theoretical) attribute. Even though they are different markets and two assets that certainly have different volatilities, it is understandably so, as Bitcoin (portrayed on the chart by orange trend-line) is relatively new (compared to Gold’s traditional monetary backing), on much lower capitalization and is natural to be so volatile in its early stages until mass adoption happens and the market matures.

** Gold’s ETF approval pattern **

As a result, Gold’s ETF introduction back in March 28 2003 may be the perfect (and perhaps only dependable) comparison we can make if we want to put a potential Bitcoin ETF approval into context. As you can see, Gold (portrayed on the chart by the candles) rose massively by +350% since its ETF approval. The rise from the previous peak (January 1980) to the post ETF one (August 2011), has been +124%. Even though they are on different time-frames (but understandably so as Bitcoin is digital and moves on a much faster pace), we have adjusted BTC’s last Bear Cycle and the subsequent first Bull Cycle rally, on Gold’s price action from the 1980 peak to the March 2003 ETF approval. Of course this assumes that Bitcoin’s ETF will be approved and even more so now, but this is the only basis for comparison we can make. When/ if approved, the width (and price ranges) can be adjusted.

** Bitcoin’s projection based on Gold’s ETD pattern **

So on the right chart we can see a post ETF approval projection for Bitcoin based on Gold’s pattern. As +350% rise would push the price near $160000. The symmetry is astonishing as the peak-to-peak trend-line from BTC’s November 2021 High to that potential +350% one (160k) would also be +124%, exactly like Gold’s! Amazing coincidence indeed but certainly shows us just how pattern recognition and comparison can give interesting results. Especially on identical fundamentals.

But what do you think? Will a SEC approved Bitcoin ETF follow into Gold’s footsteps? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!

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