🌱 Soybean Technical Analysis (GrainStats) for CBOT:ZSF2024 by GrainStats

Soybean Harvest Progress

▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░ 85%

Export Inspections

1,890,227 Metric Tons

735,466 Metric Tons week vs. last week

1,030,191 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year

372,103 Metric Tons this week vs. 5-year average

Export Sales

23,269,073 Metric Tons (Cumulative, Current Marketing Year)

8,281,365 Metric Tons this week vs. this week last year

Price Sentiment (Community Polling)

Bullish 39%

Neutral 25%

Bearish 30%

Noteworthy News / Trends

US River levels have improved on the Mississippi river (barge freight down 4 weeks in a row) – Positive for basis development

Harvest is nearing completion in the US (less sell side pressure from farmers)

Funds have reversed their net bearish bets on soybeans in the past 3 weeks

Export sales are dismal

Crush margins backing off

/ Rains forecasts are improving in Argentina, mixed in Brazil

Funds

Funds have reversed their net short position and are long over 23 thousand contracts.

Soybean Technicals

Soybeans successfully broke out of their near term downtrend late last week which has opened the door to higher levels. We currently believe that there is potential to continue higher while also respecting the downtrend in prices since summer.

We also note that Soybean futures are stuck right in the middle of the range, so we advise caution as a choppy trade is to materialize with support/resistance being set largely out of the down/up trendlines.

What we’re paying attention to currently is the export situation in the US being extremely dismal and looking for a bright spot. We are looking at the new crop Soybean/Corn spread which we believe will keep on pricing itself to incentivize farmers to plant more Soybeans next spring. Other than that, Argentina and Brazil soybean development is on the radar on everyone’s trade desk. Expect some choppiness!

Watch the following levels for now

Upside Targets: 13.60, 13.75, 13.83

Downside Targets: 13.26, 12.97, 12.70

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