New York Mets’ four-step plan to a perfect offseason

The MLB offseason is officially underway, with no shortage of high-profile names set to be available on the free-agent and trade markets.

The New York Mets figure to be one of the more intriguing teams to monitor. Here’s a four-step plan for them to ace the offseason:  

Offseason snapshot:
After falling 11 games under .500 in late May, New York mounted a miraculous turnaround that culminated in an appearance in the National League Championship Series. With more than $180 million coming off the books, billionaire owner Steve Cohen has the resources and motivation to take massive swings in his quest to win the World Series. 

Key free agents: 1B Pete Alonso, LHPs Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Brooks Raley, RHPs Luis Severino and Ryne Stanek, infielder Jose Iglesias and outfielder Jesse Winker 

Team needs:
Pitching, outfield and first base 

Step 1: Sign outfielder Juan Soto 

For New York to take that next step as a franchise and be on the short list of World Series contenders, its top priority must be Soto. The 26-year-old produced a slash line of .288/.419/.569 with 41 home runs and 109 RBI for the American League champion Yankees this past season, his first with the team.

According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets were among the first of nearly a dozen teams to reach out to Soto once he became a free agent. Additionally, Puma reported Thursday that Cohen will meet with the generational talent and his agent, Scott Boras, in Southern California next week.

Soto, a World Series champion and four-time All-Star, is eyeing the richest contract in MLB history, a positive development for the Mets.

It’s possible Soto could take a less lucrative contract to remain with the Yankees if he enjoyed his time in the Bronx. However, if his focus is all about money, no team is equipped to win a bidding war against the Mets. Should the Mets strike out on Soto and he signs with anyone other than the Yankees, it’d be a failure of an offseason for Cohen and Co. 

Step 2: Re-sign Alonso, Manaea and Severino 

The Mets can still work out deals with this trio while the Soto sweepstakes drag on, but for simplicity’s sake, we’ll treat them as their second objective. New York has already extended the $21.05 million qualifying offer to each player, though Severino is realistically the only one with a chance to accept it.

Alonso’s negotiations should be fascinating, as he’ll likely command a contract in the ballpark of $200 million in total value. The “Polar Bear” struggled during the regular season, hitting .240 with 34 homers and 88 RBI and posting a career-worst .788 OPS. Even so, his resume and heroics in the postseason, particularly his go-ahead ninth-inning home run in Game 3 of the wild-card series, justify re-signing the longtime Met.

Meanwhile, New York desperately needs to keep Manaea in Queens after the journeyman emerged as an unlikely ace during his first season with the team. Manaea’s success stemmed from lowering his arm slot on July 30, and after making the change, he posted a 3.09 ERA with 83 strikeouts through the end of the season.

Severino (3.91 ERA in 2024) isn’t as integral to the rotation, but if he doesn’t accept his qualifying offer, he’s worth signing to a short-term deal. If Severino signs elsewhere, Quintana wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize. 

Step 3: Revamp the bullpen through free agency and the trade market 

New York’s weakest link is its bullpen, which ranked 17th in ERA during the regular season (4.03) and posted a 5.56 mark during the postseason.

Fortunately for the Mets, president of baseball operations David Stearns proved during his time with the Milwaukee Brewers that he’s capable of building a dominant bullpen without spending much. Stearns has been busy on this front since season’s end, signing under-the-radar deals with a few arms, including Dylan Covey, and declining RHP Phil Maton’s club option.

The Mets should re-sign Raley, a left-hander who didn’t allow a run in seven innings in 2024 before suffering a season-ending elbow injury. Retaining Stanek would also be wise after the midseason acquisition posted a 3.38 ERA in October.

Still, Stearns will surely continue loading up on affordable arms. A few who could make sense to target are free agents (left-hander Tim Hill and right-handers Blake Treinen and Tommy Kahnle) and a potential trade candidate (San Francisco’s Camilo Doval). 

If the Mets are willing to pay a decent price to strengthen their bullpen, they should pursue a trade for Stearns’ former closer, Devin Williams, a standout with the Brewers. The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Patrick Mooney recently reported there’s an increasing “perception” that Milwaukee will trade Williams this offseason. Pairing Williams and his 1.83 career ERA with Mets closer Edwin Diaz would create one of the more formidable bullpen duos in the majors. 

Step 4: Acquire another starting pitcher, perhaps one of the more expensive arms if the price is right 

Even if the Mets re-sign Manaea and Severino (or Quintana), they’ll still need another starting pitcher. New York could get creative to find a solution.

Japanese ace Roki Sasaki would likely be the most sought-after pitcher available if he gets posted this offseason. He was scouted by the Mets, but the Dodgers are “heavily favored to land Sasaki,” per ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel, so he’s probably a long shot for New York.

Nevertheless, there are still several front-line starters hitting the open market, most notably right-hander Corbin Burnes and lefty Blake Snell. Burnes (2.92 ERA and 181 strikeouts last season) would cost at least one draft pick to sign since he received a qualifying offer from Baltimore, though he’d be a worthwhile addition. Snell, meanwhile, is arguably a more appealing option after going 5-0 with a 1.23 ERA and 114 strikeouts over his final 14 starts in 2024 for San Francisco.

Acquiring Burnes or Snell, along with Soto and Alonso, is realistic for the Mets. But if the Mets target a cheaper starting pitcher, viable candidates are available. Right-hander Walker Buehler and left-hander Yusei Kikuchi stand out as proven veterans who could make a similar type of surprising impact as Manaea and Severino made last season.