Gladiator 2, A Major Oscars Contender? I Don’t Buy It

It’s only natural that Gladiator 2 is looming so large at this stage of the Oscars race. A legendary filmmaker returning for a sequel to his Best Picture-winning epic after over 20 years; a cast of rising or newly risen stars backed up by a legend in a plum supporting role; a big, ambitious, crowd-pleasing spectacle that earned the sign-off from critics (including SR‘s own Graeme Guttmann) and appears ready to make good on a big price tag at the box office. A movie like that has “nominations leader” written all over it, right?

Maybe – with the full-court press campaign it’s receiving from Paramount, Gladiator 2 could very well be in the mix in several places. But even if it is, I don’t believe it’ll be a threat to win very many of them. There are forces at play this awards season that present a challenge to its ascent to glory, and it’s worth examining how other films could keep this one from building a narrative compelling enough to contend for the top prizes. But not enough people are talking about what is, to me, the biggest obstacle.

Gladiator 2 Is Going To Lose Out On Its Best Possible Narratives

This Crowded Awards Season Has Better Fits

First, I will acknowledge that Gladiator 2 has plenty in its favor. Its size and scope are expected to appeal to the crafts branches, and broad support there can fuel a Best Picture push. Oscar royalty Denzel Washington is dominating the Supporting Actor conversation right now, and Paul Mescal is leading his first major blockbuster after being so good in Aftersun that he scored a surprise nomination with minimal campaigning. These are charismatic actors who can certainly work a room. Plus, people are starting to talk about how Ridley Scott, an 86-year-old, three-time Best Director nominee, has never won.

These factors could all come into play on nominations morning. They may even, in cases like Washington’s, result in serious contention in some categories. But to be a heavy-hitter, Gladiator 2 needs to build a compelling narrative, on paper, Scott’s film has two obvious paths open to it: the big-budget, crafts-driven Hollywood showcase; and the “hit,” successful at the box office and embraced by the public. However, it looks to me like the movie’s opponents are poised to outmaneuver it on both counts.

Staging a recreated nautical battle in a constructed arena set is a surefire way to get crafts attention. But after dominating the culture in the spring, Dune: Part 2 is primed to surge its way back into the conversation. Not only is it (for my money, at least) the superior film, but I think it has the better claim to this narrative. Gladiator 2‘s mega-marketing push might be pushing it front-of-mind right now, but awards campaigns are measured in centuries, and it shouldn’t take much to remind voters of what Villeneuve & Co. achieved out in the desert.

On the popular front, Gladiator 2 is likely to be embraced by audiences, and it’s tracking for financial success. But Wicked is tracking even better, and “Glicked” is no Barbenheimer II. Since the critical response has proven overwhelmingly positive, the musical’s Oscar buzz has grown louder, and box office victory this weekend could drown out talk of anything else. If the Academy is looking for a Best Picture nominee that will get the public to tune into the telecast, Wicked is likely it.

Of course, if people really love the movie, this jockeying for traditional forms of momentum wouldn’t really matter. Even the best-laid narratives can fail in the face of genuine affection. Which is why I just can’t see it happening for Gladiator 2. What so many consider to be the movie’s ace-in-the-hole – the Academy’s love for the original Gladiator – is actually its Achilles heel.

Gladiator 2 Has A Gladiator Problem

And The Movie Won’t Let Us Forget It

Mild Spoilers For Gladiator 2 BelowGladiator 2 isn’t merely a sequel, but (to use my preferred term) a legacyquel, a familiar manifestation of Hollywood’s IP era. While typical sequels carry a story forward, this variety almost obsessively look backward, to the extent that they’re often sold to us on the idea of re-experiencing the original. At their best, we get artist-driven movies that are really grappling with that legacy, either to take stock of the present (T2 Trainspotting) or carve a new path forward (Creed). At their worst, we get soulless reanimations that smack us over the head with references and hold for applause.

More often, we get something in-between. I think Gladiator 2 has an easy parallel this year in Alien: Romulus, which is full of effective set pieces and irksome callbacks alike. These movies have their own identity and make some compelling additions to their franchises, but they invoke the past often, and with great reverence. By putting those previous entries on a pedestal (or in Gladiator‘s case, a shrine), these new movies make themselves smaller. I like both, but they also made me wonder at various times if I should be re-watching Alien or Gladiator instead.

All those references to Maximus, to the first film’s “dream of Rome,” invite such comparison. At times, I think Gladiator 2 suffers for it. But it’s also very clearly intentional on Scott’s part. His sequel may still adore Russell Crowe’s fallen hero, but it is deeply critical of almost everything else from the original. Gladiator is enduringly popular, in part, because of its steadfast championing of soulful, principled masculinity in the face of corruption and injustice. “Strength and honor” win the day.

In Gladiator 2, we learn Maximus’ sacrifice was for naught. Marcus Aurelius’ plan to return power to the Senate failed, Lucius was sent into hiding almost immediately after, and Rome decayed to the point where even Paul Mescal’s hero is unsure whether it can be saved. Not only that, but the film revels in Macrinus’ effort to burn it all down, and even uses his character to question the nobility Aurelius represented. By significantly upping the on-screen brutality, Scott may even be directing Maximus’ famed “Are you not entertained?” line at us this time.

This instinct toward farce, a common feature of Scott’s recent work, is something I admire about this film. But stark reminders that Gladiator 2 is not your father’s Gladiator aren’t likely to win over the Academy voters whose love for that first movie propelled it to the Oscars’ top prize. In an unusually unformed year, the movie’s already at risk of falling out of the Best Picture 10. But even if it stays in, and even if it gets nominated across the board, I just don’t think it has the goods to go all the way.