New York Red Bulls beat NYCFC to book spot in MLS Eastern Conference Final

NYCFC entered the match as clear favorites. They faced the Red Bulls twice in the regular season and won both matches by an aggregate score of 7-2. 

“We all know what this means for our fans,” said NYCFC defender Mitja Ilenic before the match. “We will prepare well and make sure to beat them again.”

If NYCFC did prepare well, those preparations went clear out the window in the opening minutes of the match. The Red Bulls were excellent in their off-the-ball play, and they kept NYCFC from making any progress up the field.

That off-the-ball style highlights one of soccer’s most persistent myths: the team that controls the ball must be controlling the game, too. The Red Bulls debunked that myth beautifully in this playoff. Their strategy—giving NYCFC the majority of the ball but carefully monitoring what they did with it — exhausted NYCFC and ensured that the Red Bulls never faced an attack they couldn’t defend. By the end of the game, the Red Bulls managed just 29% of the ball… but 29% of the ball was all they needed to win.

When the Red Bulls did snatch the ball off of NYCFC, they were quick to take advantage of any mistakes in the final third. Their first goal, a thundering outside-the-box strike from midfielder Felipe Carballo, was born when NYCFC failed to defend a cheeky long throw-in.

The Red Bulls’s second, a scruffy tap-in from winger Dante Vanzeir, came from NYCFC falling asleep in the box and allowing the Red Bulls access to a dangerous second ball.

These quick, intelligent goals against the run of possession have become something of a Red Bulls calling card. The team has one of the biggest xG-per-90 deltas in the league, meaning it scores more goals each game than the in-game statistics suggest it will. The Red Bulls closed out the regular season with +.37 extra goals per game than the underlying numbers thought were possible; many of them were mistake capitalizations that looked just like the goals scored by Carballo and Vanzeir tonight.

The Red Bulls will move on to the Eastern Conference final, where they’ll face one of Orlando City or Atlanta United. The winner of that match will move on to fight for the MLS Cup.

“It feels awesome. This season, they beat us twice, and we needed some revenge. We had something extra today to beat them,” said Red Bulls goalscorer Vanzeir on the Apple TV broadcast after the win.

“Amazing feeling, but we’re not done yet. We want to go all the way now.”