NIFTY: Bulls “Blinken”, Tej Strikes. for NSE:NIFTY by sreebhashyam

The rise from the base perfect high held lower than the previous Shoulder then the start of the decent. Now the global cues are weak to threatening deep dive, US dollar on the rise, Crude elevated, Liquidity receding, our Yields rising, Risk off not seen in Treasury Yields but will be seen in Credit Spreads of the corporates this time.

The amount of roll over of IG and HG will continue to be the concern, top fund managers silently echo, we are overvalued. Markets hate to listen.

US Secretary of State, Blinken, trip to Mid-East has not yielded the desired peace efforts, there is utter calm. US President Biden watchful words, the gambit continues, and uneasy calm continue to prevail.

Cyclone Tej, hits the Arabian coast, may weaken, mimicking the weakening tej in our markets. Today is the test on two accounts 1. Post the Morgan Stanly upgrade will the market post the green shoots 2. Ahead of Holiday tomorrow will the bulls carry the positions.

Look at the state of the Global Indexes.

30 Months SNP500 Flat

30 Months Dow Flat

30 Months DAX Flat

30 Months IXIC Flat

66 Months UK100 Flat

66 Months Korea Flat

120 Months China Flat

120 Months Saudi Index Flat

33 Years NIKKI is Flat

Our own sectoral Indexes shows mixed. Nifty bank is flat for the YTD. Internal of this vary though like everywhere else.

What then is the approach, read our weekend, Silent Woods sectoral view.

Clearly, lighten the portfolio, cash is not king yet, no where to hide? are all the symptoms of money management. No easy solutions. For the market negotiation, first blood that bear’s would draw is close below the 19430-480 not very far off, the final stab is if we close below the 19300, any break of this can be swift and sharp.

When market would call our bluff, the dotted sloping line is the indication, any price closing above this negates the view.

For the day and going forward shorts with stops 19730 for final break of 19300, ultimate move towards 18300-500 is one approach.

Results season so individual spaces would be a different approach all together.